Re: Coronovirus update : Tue May 05, 2020 3:58 pm  

DHM wrote:

I agree on the lockdown but I think there's a difference between businesses opening and public gatherings. You are not going to see 50,000 people jammed into Old Trafford for a game of football until everyone is vaccinated - I can't see that being allowed. Concerts, plays, festivals and large sporting events just won't happen, it's already been strongly hinted at. Business will get going again, you are absolutely right, they have to, there are many already operating shift systems and taking measures to distance people and protect employees. As we expand testing we will also be able to get people back to work faster. I was tested with my son at the weekend and the results (thankfully negative) came back in the promised 48 hours and I am now free to make visits and he can go back to stacking supermarket shelves at the weekend.

The guys in Oxford are pretty confident that their vaccine will work (they are some of the smartest people you will come across and they were totally ready for this type of pandemic having done extensive work on SARS 1 and MERS) and so are the other groups working on them. Not guaranteed, nothing is, but there is a very good chance of success. There will be more than one vaccine also.

I agree about mass gatherings like 50,000+ crowds, don't think we will see them this year, however that doesn't stop sport from starting up again with crowds increasing as time goes on.

Once Furlough money stops smaller sports clubs will have to try and monetise the sport again, I can't see that being any other way than playing behind closed doors

I'm glad testing is now being seen as a priority my wife is a Nurse who had suspected CV - was supposed to have a test for it to get cancelled and then told she couldn't have one! so she had to have 7 days off work and me 14 days in isolation - she wasn't ill she just had a cough.

You mention SARS and MERS both if which we I think we don't have a vaccine for!

Re: Coronovirus update : Tue May 05, 2020 4:18 pm  

christopher wrote: You mention SARS and MERS both if which we I think we don't have a vaccine for! There were several vaccines developed for SARS Cov-1 but as there hasn't been a case since 2004 they were withdrawn from clinical trial - but they worked. MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus) began a vaccine trial last year in Saudi Arabia, it was developed by the Jenner Institute in Oxford, the same people who have just put the SARS Cov-2 vaccine into clinical trial. The difference is the number of cases, it's a massive effort to develop and manufacture a vaccine and usually takes 5-10 years to do it. MERS has claimed around 900 lives to date and as the name suggests is limited to a particular geographical area and is generally infectious by close proximity to camels - hence the trial taking place in Saudi Arabia. The expertise that the Jenner has on covid diseases is immense and they were very ready for this. http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-02-07-oxf ... e-research Sarah Gilbert is very impressive.

christopher wrote: You mention SARS and MERS both if which we I think we don't have a vaccine for! There were several vaccines developed for SARS Cov-1 but as there hasn't been a case since 2004 they were withdrawn from clinical trial - but they worked. MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus) began a vaccine trial last year in Saudi Arabia, it was developed by the Jenner Institute in Oxford, the same people who have just put the SARS Cov-2 vaccine into clinical trial. The difference is the number of cases, it's a massive effort to develop and manufacture a vaccine and usually takes 5-10 years to do it. MERS has claimed around 900 lives to date and as the name suggests is limited to a particular geographical area and is generally infectious by close proximity to camels - hence the trial taking place in Saudi Arabia. The expertise that the Jenner has on covid diseases is immense and they were very ready for this. http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-02-07-oxf ... e-research Sarah Gilbert is very impressive.

Re: Coronovirus update : Wed May 06, 2020 10:13 am  

southyorksdave wrote:

they need to find out if the virus leaves behind antibodies

Antibody response is low and suspected to be short lived, but you are correct, serology tests are vital. The first antibody tests were as bad as 30% sensitive, which is completely useless. Roche will launch a serological diagnostic test this month and Abbott have launched a serology test (these the two big boys in diagnostic testing). The Abbott test I'm not convinced about, the Roche test will probably be good.

Re: Coronovirus update : Thu May 07, 2020 2:29 pm  

DHM wrote:

Antibody response is low and suspected to be short lived, but you are correct, serology tests are vital. The first antibody tests were as bad as 30% sensitive, which is completely useless. Roche will launch a serological diagnostic test this month and Abbott have launched a serology test (these the two big boys in diagnostic testing). The Abbott test I'm not convinced about, the Roche test will probably be good.

Roche are claiming 99.8% sensitivity. So looks promising

Re: Coronovirus update : Thu May 07, 2020 5:44 pm  

Highbury Rhino wrote:

Roche are claiming 99.8% sensitivity. So looks promising

Yes, they are claiming 100% sensitivity - rate of detection of true positives - and 98.8 specificity - rate of correct identification of true negatives (sorry- don't mean to be nit picky). However, looks like they only submitted data for 29 covid positive samples for the FDA EUA. Surprisingly getting hold of positive samples has been a really big issue. I believe that the NHS was not collecting and storing blood samples from positive patients.

It had better work because their CEO has been publicly bad mouthing the other tests on the market (he's not wrong though).

I can't say too much but there are other options. I also have doubts that Roche would be allowed to use it for general population "screening".

Re: Coronovirus update : Thu May 07, 2020 6:48 pm  

DHM wrote:

Yes, they are claiming 100% sensitivity - rate of detection of true positives - and 98.8 specificity - rate of correct identification of true negatives (sorry- don't mean to be nit picky). However, looks like they only submitted data for 29 covid positive samples for the FDA EUA. Surprisingly getting hold of positive samples has been a really big issue. I believe that the NHS was not collecting and storing blood samples from positive patients.

It had better work because their CEO has been publicly bad mouthing the other tests on the market (he's not wrong though).

I can't say too much but there are other options. I also have doubts that Roche would be allowed to use it for general population "screening".

Fine to ‘not pick’ it’s important stuff and imperative to get it right!

Re: Coronovirus update : Thu May 07, 2020 7:07 pm  

Highbury Rhino wrote:

Fine to ‘not pick’ it’s important stuff and imperative to get it right!

Re: Coronovirus update : Sat May 09, 2020 2:50 pm  

I agree that large public gatherings are unlikely to be allowed until a vaccine is readily available or effective medication has been proven to prevent death. Testing is important but the current approved test kits only tell you you have the virus at the time of the test. You could be infected the following day/week etc. The worry is that recent medical reports from Germany suggest perhaps one in five are asymptomatic.

Social distancing is likely to be with us for some time and life will have to adjust accordingly.

Full RL will be almost impossible under current measures. However for clubs to try and produce some urgently needed income maybe the RL authorities could run a summer 9s competition with rule changes eg no scrums only tackling around the legs etc. This would have a better chance of being allowed as there would be no scrums and no wrestle. This could prove to be a big hit with Sky as it would appeal to Union fans used to their summer 7s competitions. There could be 4 games per session say twice a week or more if Championship clubs were included.

Re: Coronovirus update : Fri May 15, 2020 6:35 pm  

Times getting on now ,will there be some sort of season?

Re: Coronovirus update : Fri May 15, 2020 7:06 pm  

lionarmour87 wrote:

Times getting on now ,will there be some sort of season?

Think so but it will be behind closed doors. Be interesting to see what the club does regarding season tickets. Cant see them offering refunds and if discount is offered off next season it could make next year financially difficult.