Re: Gove gone : Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:05 am  

Cibaman wrote:

Looks like a hung parliament but much depends on whether UKIP's support holds up

I reckon UPRIK will have the same number of MPs as they have at the moment

Re: Gove gone : Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:32 am  

cod'ead wrote:

I reckon UPRIK will have the same number of MPs as they have at the moment

I think Cibaman meant that if the support for UKIP holds up then that will siphon votes away from the Tories and lead them to losing seats to Labour or Lib Dems rather than UKIP itself gaining any MP's.

The only way UKIP can gain an MP is if Nigel Farage stands in the most UKIP friendly constituency possible. Even then I don't see him winning.
I also don't think it'll happen because it's a massive risk for Farage and a bit of a no win situation. If he wins all he's done is get 1 MP and won't be able to change or do much. If he doesn't win then he loses credibility.

[DaveO]

Re: Gove gone : Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:07 pm  

JerryChicken wrote:

Theyve shown that a coalition government is no hinderence to incidious hatred politics especially when your minor partner has little input into your govrrnance, they will have no issues with signing up the Libdems or any other minor partner again.

The Lid Dems are toast and what other minor parties? There are currently 8 DUP MP's who would sign up but there is no way the likes of the SNP, SDLP, Plaid or the one Green MP are going to form a coalition with the Tories.

As for the points and the polls, completely meaningless at the moment and will be until the last few weeks, dont underestimate the ability of the compliant media to supress bad news and promote the PR bollax instead - the British voters are so sheep-like in general elections and the fact that none of the partys offer anything that could be described as a new approach makes it so much easier to just let the newspapers choose.

A 15% swing doesn't just require the suppression of bad news but a genuine increase in popular support. I don't see any great enthusiasm for this lot and ambivalence won't get them that kind of swing.

The position the Tories are in is one of a tired government at the end of its 2nd term not its first. Normally it is nigh on impossible for a party to return to office after one term in opposition but this is definitely on the cards for labour despite the negative PR and spin.

Re: Gove gone : Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:28 pm  

DaveO wrote:

The Lid Dems are toast and what other minor parties? There are currently 8 DUP MP's who would sign up but there is no way the likes of the SNP, SDLP, Plaid or the one Green MP are going to form a coalition with the Tories.

There are still 650-ish seats to vote for and so even if Lib-Dem lost every single one of theirs that would mean (probably) that one of the two major parties would gain it, as one who lives in a Lib-Dem constituency I'd advise you to stick your money on the Conservative here if Mulholland isn't going to be re-elected - its not a given that each lost Lib-Dem seat will go to Labour simply because the current Tory government has been despised up until now, truth is that not all despise them and the press are in their pockets, or maybe its the other way around.

I wish it weren't so but I still hear nothing from Labour, I'm sure they are saying things in the Commons and I'm sure they must have some idea of what their counter policies are or how they would present a budget but do you EVER see them quoted in the national newspapers or other media - hardly surprising that most think they are sitting on their hands.

Re: Gove gone : Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:39 pm  

Him wrote:

I think Cibaman meant that if the support for UKIP holds up then that will siphon votes away from the Tories and lead them to losing seats to Labour or Lib Dems rather than UKIP itself gaining any MP's.

The only way UKIP can gain an MP is if Nigel Farage stands in the most UKIP friendly constituency possible. Even then I don't see him winning.
I also don't think it'll happen because it's a massive risk for Farage and a bit of a no win situation. If he wins all he's done is get 1 MP and won't be able to change or do much. If he doesn't win then he loses credibility.

UKIP picked up 3% of the vote at the last election. They're currently on 12-13% in the polls. If only half of that increase proves to be temporary and reverts back to the Tories, that will put them ahead in the popular vote. Still well short of an overall majority but plenty to play for in a general election campaign.

The Lib Dems will clearly see a massive reduction in their share of the popular vote. But they're quite good at holding on to seats once they've won them. They'll get slaughtered in the student constituencies but that might not translate in to a corresponding reduction in their overall seats.

Re: Gove gone : Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:58 pm  

DaveO wrote:

The position the Tories are in is one of a tired government at the end of its 2nd term not its first. Normally it is nigh on impossible for a party to return to office after one term in opposition but this is definitely on the cards for labour despite the negative PR and spin.

I'll take back a small part of my earlier comment about Labour being a party of dead men walking, having just listened to Fabian Hamilton this lunchtime on local radio he appears to be one of those unusual politicians who has a genuine passion for politics, a man who has a modicom of principals, and someone who is not afraid to speak his mind and get annoyed with idiots while he is doing it - his destruction of such an idiot who emailed in a statement about how the last Labour government destroyed the world economy and how its taken a Tory government to balance the books again was a piece of radio gold and left the program presenter having to ask him to calm down

If he was Leeds NW instead of Leeds NE then he'd certainly get my vote, a Labour politician who has modern era social principles.

Re: Gove gone : Sat Jul 19, 2014 1:38 pm  

Personally, I believe that only one party is capable of winning an overall majority at the next election, and that is the Tories - They will have the vast majority of the media batting for them and once the serious campaigning begins, then that is when Milliband's uselessness will be shown for all to see.... They will go to town on him and rip his credibility to shreds.

However, I still don't think that will be enough to get Cameron an outright win - If he couldn't do it 2010, as a fresh faced, bright new hope, against a tired, torn apart Brown-led Labour, then you struggle to see how he can do it now.

Personally, I'd like to see a Lab-Lib coalition - Most liberals probably regret Clegg not having the balls to do it 2010. Instead, by hanging onto the coattails of the Tories, they have had their reputation as a credible third party blown to pieces. It certainly would seem to make more sense, for a party with the Liberal's ideologies, to want to work with Labour more than with the Tories... They could definitely be more effective and look more 'friendly' to the electorate than they presently do, because, at the moment, they are a toxic brand.

Re: Gove gone : Sat Jul 19, 2014 5:57 pm  

Dita's Slot Meter wrote:

Personally, I believe that only one party is capable of winning an overall majority at the next election, and that is the Tories - They will have the vast majority of the media batting for them and once the serious campaigning begins, then that is when Milliband's uselessness will be shown for all to see.... They will go to town on him and rip his credibility to shreds.

However, I still don't think that will be enough to get Cameron an outright win - If he couldn't do it 2010, as a fresh faced, bright new hope, against a tired, torn apart Brown-led Labour, then you struggle to see how he can do it now.

Personally, I'd like to see a Lab-Lib coalition - Most liberals probably regret Clegg not having the balls to do it 2010. Instead, by hanging onto the coattails of the Tories, they have had their reputation as a credible third party blown to pieces. It certainly would seem to make more sense, for a party with the Liberal's ideologies, to want to work with Labour more than with the Tories... They could definitely be more effective and look more 'friendly' to the electorate than they presently do, because, at the moment, they are a toxic brand.

The other way of looking at it is that Labour are the Lib Dems main rivals, they're both chasing the same section of the electorate. The growth of the Labour Party in the 20th century was achieved by almost wiping out the Liberal Party so they've no reason to feel any affinity to them. The last time they palled up with Labour with the Lib Lab pact, they were faired no better at the subsequent election than they will do this time. And if they have any serious ambitions to grow as a political force (eg to have 150+ seats) they can only do that at the expense of the Labour Party, not by being its junior partner.

The Lib Dems problems are less to do with them being in a coalition with the Tories, more that power exposes the fact that they're not very good.

[DaveO]

Re: Gove gone : Tue Jul 22, 2014 11:36 am  

JerryChicken wrote:

There are still 650-ish seats to vote for and so even if Lib-Dem lost every single one of theirs that would mean (probably) that one of the two major parties would gain it, as one who lives in a Lib-Dem constituency I'd advise you to stick your money on the Conservative here if Mulholland isn't going to be re-elected - its not a given that each lost Lib-Dem seat will go to Labour simply because the current Tory government has been despised up until now, truth is that not all despise them and the press are in their pockets, or maybe its the other way around.

The Lib-Dem vote has collapsed in just about every election since 2010. In Chester the seat went from Labour to Tory with a 2500 majority in 2010. 8,900 voted Lib Dem. In fact it was a swp of those 2500 votes from Labour to Tory that represented the swing. I think there is plenty to aim at for Labour here. UKIP got 0.9% of the vote 1225 so that unknown could also affect the Tory vote.

I have no idea how many constituencies are similar to this across the country where the fight is Labour v Tory but I am sure there are some where and Lib Dem defections aren't going to go to the Tories.

Re: Gove gone : Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:57 pm  

Cibaman wrote:

UKIP picked up 3% of the vote at the last election. They're currently on 12-13% in the polls..

Have they suddenly developed armchair or couch polls?