Re: Championship top 4 : Sun Jul 08, 2018 3:57 pm  

No they are not identical, the teams I want to be promoted are unlikely to be the ones I think will be promoted.

Re: Championship top 4 : Sun Jul 08, 2018 4:32 pm  

Leigh will finish on 32 points. They have a very positive points difference which is only going to get better with 3 more wins. So any other club wanting to be in the top 4 needs to beat this total.

Toronto are in.

Toulouse (Barrow, Halifax and Dewsbury left) have a good points difference and need 3 more points. They should beat Barrow and Dewsbury, so they're in, irrespective of the Halifax result.


Halifax (London, Toulouse and Rochdale left) absolutely have to win at least two of these. Rochdale should be a banker, but they need a win against London or Toulouse.

Featherstone (Swinton, London and Toronto) will likely lose at Toronto and will likely win at Swinton. So they have to beat London to have a chance.

London (Halifax, Featherstone and Barrow) have to win all three.


Likely outcome of those crucial games where these clubs play each other, based on current league positions:

Toulouse (W) v Halifax

London v Halifax (W)

Fev(W) v London

Fev v Toronto (W)

Finishing points:

Toronto - 43
Toulouse - 35
Halifax - 33
Featherstone - 32
Leigh - 32
London - 29


Leigh or Featherstone would then qualify on points difference. You'd expect Leigh to rack up more in their three wins against lower teams than fev will in their two wins against upper teams. Also, Toronto have been handing out big thumpings in Canada, and Featherstone might be in trouble there.

Couple of wildcards.

Halifax play Toulouse in Halifax. Not impossible to see that as a Halifax win. In which case Fax finish on 35, and Toulouse are on 33. But both would still be safe.


On the other hand, Halifax play London at London, and as London will be desperate next week, there could be a loss there. That would be great news for Leigh fans, as it would almost certainly put Halifax out of the picture, without putting London in it, with both finishing on 31 points, and Leigh on 4th without needing to rely on points difference.


Of course, there might be shocks from the lower teams along the way, but it seems unlikely. Which means that for Leigh fans, they'll be cheering on London against Fax, and cheering on Toronto to rack up a big score against Featherstone. It would also be better on balance for Toulouse to beat Fax.


Given the predispositions of some posters on this board, I find it a delicious irony that Leigh fans will almost certainly be relying on the three expansion teams of Toronto, Toulouse and London to keep their hopes of a top four place alive.

Re: Championship top 4 : Sun Jul 08, 2018 4:33 pm  

Updated table

Toronto 37 +422
Toulouse 29 +375
Halifax 29 +192
Featherstone 28 +332
London 27 +409
Leigh 26 +269

Re: Championship top 4 : Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:55 pm  

Roy Haggerty wrote:

Finishing points:

Toronto - 43
Toulouse - 35
Halifax - 33
Featherstone - 32
Leigh - 32
London - 29

London Leigh and Toronto are the only ones to leave France with any points yet you have us losing to Fax at Home and then away to Fev, who we dismantled earlier in the season...? I see London winning all three which will suit Leigh
Toronto 43
Toulouse 35
London 33
Leigh 32
Fax 31
Fev 30

I hope nobody goes up, because with Bradford in this mix next year, the Championship will AGAIN be more exciting than the stupor League.....and Toronto will have to travel each week........

Re: Championship top 4 : Sun Jul 08, 2018 6:10 pm  

Roy Haggerty wrote:

Leigh will finish on 32 points. They have a very positive points difference which is only going to get better with 3 more wins. So any other club wanting to be in the top 4 needs to beat this total.

Did you look at the league table before you posted this? Out of the top 6, only Halifax have a worse points difference than Leigh. Fev are 60+ points better off and London a whopping 140!

Re: Championship top 4 : Sun Jul 08, 2018 6:14 pm  

Call Me God wrote:

I hope nobody goes up, because with Bradford in this mix next year, the Championship will AGAIN be more exciting than the stupor League.....and Toronto will have to travel each week........

Widnes and/or Salford will be relegated IMO

Re: Championship top 4 : Sun Jul 08, 2018 7:09 pm  

Nothus wrote:

Did you look at the league table before you posted this? Out of the top 6, only Halifax have a worse points difference than Leigh. Fev are 60+ points better off and London a whopping 140!

I did. But if Leigh win their last 3 games by 30 point differences, which is entirely feasible given they're playing three semi-pro teams at the bottom of the table, then their points difference changes dramatically. And as their PD rises, the PD of any club above them which loses a game will be heading down at the same time.

TBH, unless Toronto give out a massive beating to Fev, then Fev should be safe, as they would add to their PD if they won their other 2 games, and they're the only ones likely to be on the same number of league points as Leigh. So I don't think PD will come into the mix, really.


Every team in that top 6 except Leigh still has their own destiny in their hands. Leigh need results to go a certain way eve if they win all their remaining 3 fixtures. Everyone else can guarantee their place by winning their matches. Certainly if those clubs can't sell tickets off the back of that, then they should have a word with themselves.

Re: Championship top 4 : Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:17 pm  

There are three key games between London & Fax, Fax & TO and Fev & London before the end of the season. Making some (possibly rash) assumptions about the other games (the top 6 teams beat bottom 6 opponents when they play them, and Toronto beat Fev), then there are 8 possible scenarios based on the outcome of these (with another assumption that there isn't a draw involved in these three games).

- TO will make the top 4.
- Fax would miss out on the top 4 if they lose both games.
- Fev need to beat London but will still be battling with Leigh on points difference unless Fax lose both games.
- London need to beat both Fax and Fev to be in the top 4.
- Leigh will be in the top 4 or possibly battling with Fev on points difference, unless Fax beat TO, London beat Fax and London beat Fev (leaves Fax, London and TO all on 33 points and Leigh miss out).

Other than probably unlikely wins for Dewsbury, Sheffield, Swinton or Rochdale, what could possibly change this would be Barrow beating either TO or London at home or Fev managing to beat Toronto (if they rest players).

London vs Fax first up this weekend, and Sky are (IMO) missing a trick by not televising these games.

Re: Championship top 4 : Sun Jul 15, 2018 2:39 pm  

Featherstone and Toulouse have both won by massive margins today, vastly improving their points difference, should it come down to that.

Re: Championship top 4 : Sun Jul 15, 2018 2:59 pm  

Featherstone v London and Halifax v Toulouse next week, as well as potentially Toronto v Featherstone the week after are massively important games.

Updated table

Toronto 39 +468
Toulouse 31 +439
Featherstone 30 +388
London 29 +411
Halifax 29 +190
Leigh 28 +291