Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Wed May 30, 2018 1:51 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Agree about the strong and stable - May is an embarrassment.

I have always said WTO is the best way forward - it works for many other countries and there is no logical reason why it can't work here. Perhaps it will encourage us to become more self sufficient or reduce our dependence on Europe.

As a nation that has never been close to being self sufficient, we have to rely on other countries for the provision of either raw materials and or finished goods and it really shouldn't matter whether we import from the EU or elsewhere.

Our countries strength was traditionally in manufacture and innovation.

However, with the rise of the Asian nations as low cost manufacturers, who can now match / better UK manufacture, we will remain a substantial net importer.

Sadly the heady days of the industrial revolution, where Britain literally ruled the world are nothing but a few chapters in the history books and we have to find new ways to generate wealth.

Our financial services sector has been propping up our lack of manufacturing and once again, by leaving the EU, we have put our "jewel in the crown" at risk.

Quite rightly, the EU dont want to "pay" the UK for services that they can move within the EU26 and with Germany and France desperate to have a slice of this particular cake, we have put this huge sector at risk.

We could all "but British", however, we still have to import the raw materials to manufacture our British goods and there are very few people that are patriotic enough to want to spend significantly more, just to have a Union Jack label on the goods that they buy.

As you intimated in one of your previous posts our balance of trade figures (not just with The EU) are horrific and we no longer have the ability to significantly change this.

Where do you think our "recovery" will come from ?

Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Thu May 31, 2018 2:28 pm  

We still have a strong manufacturing base its just much more niche than it used to be e.g. McLaren, Ginetta, JCB

London has a cache that the Germans/French will not be replicate - no matter what everyone says - being in London is essential for any major financial firm.

We can import product from cheaper sources than the EU so if we want white goods/TV's etc. why do they have to come from within the EU. If the prices from the EU become uncompetitive people will soon move to a more competitive source some of which will be British.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Fri Jun 01, 2018 10:31 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

We still have a strong manufacturing base its just much more niche than it used to be e.g. McLaren, Ginetta, JCB

London has a cache that the Germans/French will not be replicate - no matter what everyone says - being in London is essential for any major financial firm.

We can import product from cheaper sources than the EU so if we want white goods/TV's etc. why do they have to come from within the EU. If the prices from the EU become uncompetitive people will soon move to a more competitive source some of which will be British.

Sorry, Sal but, you are talking nonsense.
Yes, we have a manufacturing base and yes, it is niche. However, due to our relatively high cost base, we have to concentrate on high tech an innovative manufacture, which, quite frankly, just isnt enough to balance the books.

Also, we have become a useful centre for servicing the EU, particularly with things like car manufacture etc and it's difficult to see major companies locating here post Brexit, when they will be safer within The EU.

Concerning the financial sector, you are just wrong.
There is already some slippage within the sector with some jobs already being transferred and with Germany and France desperate for a slice of the action, it will only move one way, south across the Channel.

It appears that the Brexit DREAM is still alive but, I still believe that we will come second in this 2 horse race.

Lions led by donkeys.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:05 pm  

Moment of the day: the EU, with a straight face, condemning US steel/aluminium tariffs as 'protectionism'.

I truly doubt they understand the meaning of the word 'hypocrisy'.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Sat Jun 02, 2018 6:03 am  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Sorry, Sal but, you are talking nonsense.
Yes, we have a manufacturing base and yes, it is niche. However, due to our relatively high cost base, we have to concentrate on high tech an innovative manufacture, which, quite frankly, just isnt enough to balance the books.

Also, we have become a useful centre for servicing the EU, particularly with things like car manufacture etc and it's difficult to see major companies locating here post Brexit, when they will be safer within The EU.

Concerning the financial sector, you are just wrong.
There is already some slippage within the sector with some jobs already being transferred and with Germany and France desperate for a slice of the action, it will only move one way, south across the Channel.

It appears that the Brexit DREAM is still alive but, I still believe that we will come second in this 2 horse race.

Lions led by donkeys.

I on't know how many nissan/Toyota/BMW etc we buy in the UK but perhaps there could be enough for manufacturers to maintain factories here to service the UK and other non EU countries. Despite our high cost base - major motor manufacturers choose to be here why is that - is not access to Europe because they could easily have opened factories in Europe.


London will always be a major financial centre - its business in the far east and the US will not be impacted to a huge degree. Your idea the London will effectively shrink to be a minor player behind Paris and Dusseldorf is as you so rightly put is utter nonesense.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Sat Jun 02, 2018 8:51 am  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Sorry, Sal but, you are talking nonsense.
Yes, we have a manufacturing base and yes, it is niche. However, due to our relatively high cost base, we have to concentrate on high tech an innovative manufacture, which, quite frankly, just isnt enough to balance the books.

Also, we have become a useful centre for servicing the EU, particularly with things like car manufacture etc and it's difficult to see major companies locating here post Brexit, when they will be safer within The EU.

Concerning the financial sector, you are just wrong.
There is already some slippage within the sector with some jobs already being transferred and with Germany and France desperate for a slice of the action, it will only move one way, south across the Channel.

It appears that the Brexit DREAM is still alive but, I still believe that we will come second in this 2 horse race.

Lions led by donkeys.

I on't know how many nissan/Toyota/BMW etc we buy in the UK but perhaps there could be enough for manufacturers to maintain factories here to service the UK and other non EU countries. Despite our high cost base - major motor manufacturers choose to be here why is that - is not access to Europe because they could easily have opened factories in Europe.


London will always be a major financial centre - its business in the far east and the US will not be impacted to a huge degree. Your idea the London will effectively shrink to be a minor player behind Paris and Dusseldorf is as you so rightly put is utter nonesense.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Sat Jun 02, 2018 10:50 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

I on't know how many nissan/Toyota/BMW etc we buy in the UK but perhaps there could be enough for manufacturers to maintain factories here to service the UK and other non EU countries. Despite our high cost base - major motor manufacturers choose to be here why is that - is not access to Europe because they could easily have opened factories in Europe.


London will always be a major financial centre - its business in the far east and the US will not be impacted to a huge degree. Your idea the London will effectively shrink to be a minor player behind Paris and Dusseldorf is as you so rightly put is utter nonesense.

Like all businesses, car manufacturers will site their manufacturing centres based on a number of criteria.
Location (in relation to their main markets), cost of plant, running costs, access to subsidies, gants, sweeteners (particularly interesting for Toyota who were guarenteed by Mrs May's government that "they would be no worse off after Brexit so that they would commit to the production of the new model), proximity to other centres etc, etc

Modern manufacture has companies pulling in components from all over the world and this has to be simple (friction less if you like) and if you were CEO of one of these major manufacturers, unless there was some huge benefit for siting outside the EU, when your major market was within, you would be looking at other EU countries (of course this is providing that they have the technical know how etc to manufacture said product.

"Bribes" aplenty are likely in the short term to prevent the "cliff edge" but, the longer term looks a little less clear.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Mon Jun 04, 2018 3:08 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

We still have a strong manufacturing base its just much more niche than it used to be e.g. McLaren, Ginetta, JCB

London has a cache that the Germans/French will not be replicate - no matter what everyone says - being in London is essential for any major financial firm.

We can import product from cheaper sources than the EU so if we want white goods/TV's etc. why do they have to come from within the EU. If the prices from the EU become uncompetitive people will soon move to a more competitive source some of which will be British.

JCB are not that great. Their tracked excavators are based on old Japanese (Sumitomo) designs and are not as durable as, say Cat, Komatsu or Hitachi. And most of the components, hydraulics, electronics, undercarriage are sourced abroad. The same goes tor their wheeled backactors. Pretty much all JCB do is the metal bashing and assembly. Can't speak for the other companies you cited, but I do know about earthmoving equipment.

[Bullseye]

Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:07 am  

Lots of manufacturers have seen costs go up for imported parts. Any problematic trade barriers will cause further cost rises. I can see a few moving to an EU member state since there will be more customers within the block than outside it and they'll want to avoid extra costs and delays from being in the UK.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:47 am  

Cost have gone up due to the value of the £ - it could well be it never recovers and that is the status quo.

Hopefully the dollar will weaken and that will impact prices far more the any movement in the Euro.

As we have discussed previously the EU sell us far more product than we sell them - trade barriers/tariffs will hurt them much more than they hurt us. If their goods become too expensive then customers will look for alternatives - simple supply/demand economics