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Re: How to make Playoffs : Sun Aug 21, 2022 10:06 am

KineticRR wrote:

First of all, no, I have not been living under a rock for the last few months... I was just bored. So I've had a look at what we'd need to make Playoffs at this point, just for something to track in the final few weeks. And to make it clear to everyone who the opponents are for all contenders and what scenarios we can allow.

I'm fully aware it's nearly impossible, but given we seem to be safe, or at least feel more safe, why not look at something positive. We've had enough negativity for one season.

So here we go...

As It Stands:
6) Leeds - 23
7) Salford - 20
8 ) Hull FC - 20
9) Hull KR - 20
10) Warrington - 16

Best Case Scenario:
6) Warrington - 24
7) Leeds - 23
8 ) Hull FC - 22
9) Hull KR - 22
10) Salford - 20

NOTE: Of the following games listed, we can allow for some variations (which are covered), but the current wins and losses mentioned below would get us to the 'Best Case Scenario'.

Leeds:
- Warrington (L)
- Huddersfield (L)
- Catalans (L)
- Castleford (L)
- If Leeds win one of their last 4 games, we cannot make Playoffs.

Salford:
- Huddersfield (L)
- Catalans (L)
- Hull FC (L)
- Castleford (L)
- Warrington (L)
- We can afford for them to win only one of their next four games. Preferably vs Hull FC if they beat either Toulouse or Wakefield, not both.

Hull FC:
- Saints (L)
- Wakefield (L)
- Salford (W)
- Toulouse (L)
- Hull KR (L)
- Praying Toulouse and Wakefield are battling hard to stay up. We can allow Hull FC to beat one of those two, and then allow Salford to only beat Hull FC, as opposed to this current list.

Hull KR:
- Saints (L)
- Wakefield (L)
- Wigan (L)
- Hull FC (W)
- We can allow them to win one game. Preferably to Hull FC if they have already won one of their next four games.

Warrington:
- Leeds (W)
- Castleford (W)
- Huddersfield (W)
- Salford (W)
- We must win all remaining games. We can only afford for Salford, Hull FC and Hull KR to each win one of their remaining games.

Leeds - Have been in great form in the last few weeks. BUT, they have to face us, and then have the toughest schedule of the teams listed in the last three games, playing 3rd, 4th and 5th Place. Must lose all games.

Salford - Play the same teams as Leeds but their schedule includes another team fighting for Playoffs. Obviously looking decent recently but hoping they lose confidence vs Huddersfield and then Catalans before facing Hull FC, then a decent Castleford team. And finally us, for the last game of the season. Salford can only win one game.

Hull FC - Take on Saints first, then their schedule looks easier. We need them to have some shockers vs Wakefield and Toulouse. Hull FC are capable of that. But hopefully the battle for relegation is in full swing and both teams play some of the most hard fought Rugby we've seen this season. Hull FC can only win one game.

Hull KR - Two tough opponents vs Saints and Wigan in the last 4, where hopefully they don't rest too many players. Need Wakefield to step up against them and we can allow them to beat Hull FC in the last game if Hull FC have won only one game up to that point. Hull KR can only win one game.

Warrington - Of the teams listed, we have the toughest schedule remaining (what a shock). Although, we still play two teams that we are competing against so it's in our hands, which I always prefer. Must win all games.

One thing that is slightly more realistic is that any team can hit 24 points, so we could allow a draw for Leeds and they have a tough schedule anyway. Or two wins for Salford, Hull FC and Hull KR, which is quite possible. But we'd need them to win by fine margins and lose their other games extremely heavily, whilst we win massively to cover the points difference. Leeds is our biggest difference, so we'd have to swing 38 points on them in each round if we match them on points.

However, the points difference situation can also be applied to Castleford. As they are on 24 points, but their points difference is easier to match (25 point swing per game), we'd need them to lose to Huddersfield, Warrington, Salford and Leeds, which are all very possible. But Castleford would have to be the only team that Salford beats in their last five. I only took preference to Castleford securing 5th over Leeds as the gap to them is larger.

So mathematically, it is possible to make Playoffs. And if the wins and losses I've mentioned above actually occur, that's how we'd get there. As mentioned before, it's close to impossible, but it's something I'll be keeping my eye on.

Hope you enjoyed the read. Have a great day!

This wins the award for most optimistic/crazy/amusing post of the year so fair play fella! :mrgreen: