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Board index Super League Warrington Wolves Where will we finish

Re: Where will we finish Thu Nov 28, 2019 10:06 am  

User avatarWires71 wrote:
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rubber duckie wrote:
It means I don't agree with your stats and odds again.


That's fair enough but I don't think your utterance was an English sentence.

"History shows us 345 in top 5 is not 1/4.
It's zero"
Re: Where will we finish Thu Nov 28, 2019 10:12 am  

User avatarWires71 wrote:
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sally cinnamon wrote:
I like thinking about things probabilistically like this.

At this point, my totally subjective - not based on any statistical modelling information or projections - guesstimate would be:

Making Wembley: 20%
Winning the CC: 10%
Winning the League Leaders' Shield: 10%
Making the playoffs: 55%
Making the Grand Final: 10%
Winning the Grand Final: 5%

That would give us a 1 in 200 chance of winning the double and 1 in 2000 chance of the treble, assuming the events are independent. In practice the odds of making/winning the Grand Final would go up if we won the LLS and might go down if we won the CC, but I haven't factored that in.



Based on last 10 seasons.
Making Wembley 6/10 = 60%
Winning the CC 4/10 = 40%
LLS 2/10 = 20%
Making the playoffs = 9/10 = 90%
Making the GF = 4/10 = 40%
Winning the GF = 0/10 = 0%

Price Tenure
Making Wembley 2/2 = 100%
Winning the CC 1/2 = 50%
LLS 0/2 = 0%
Making the playoffs = 2/2 = 100%
Making the GF = 1/2 = 50%
Winning the GF = 0/2 = 0%

Statistically we are better with Price than the average of the last 10 years. But it doesn't feel like that.
Re: Where will we finish Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:27 pm  

User avatarCaptain Hook wrote:
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Let’s be blunt, for 2/3rds of the season we played like a team that had been introduced to each other half an hour before kick off. The most important question is, has SP learned his lesson?
Just my opinions unless it's a FACT, in which case it's a fact.
Re: Where will we finish Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:50 pm  

User avatarWires71 wrote:
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Captain Hook wrote:
has SP learned his lesson?


What lesson though? He was of the opinion it was a successful season. It was KP who had do disavow that opinion.

I'm not expecting Price to have a volte-face and deliver the equivalent of the Harlem Globetrotters next season.
Re: Where will we finish Thu Nov 28, 2019 6:21 pm  

Barbed Wire wrote:
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It depends on what the objectives of the club are. If Price is instructed to win, obtain a successful win:loss ratio and reach the major finals, his approach is unlikely to change.

However, if KF wants to push this ‘brand’ he may suggest a more attractive style accepting that comes at an occasional slip up.
Re: Where will we finish Thu Nov 28, 2019 6:46 pm  

Superblue wrote:
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Karl Fitzpatrick, such a joker :D

He’s got us with more “ stage props” off the field than “ props” on it.

And just to re- emphasise, If last season wasn’t a successful season, I’ll take another unsuccessful season this time round.
Re: Where will we finish Thu Nov 28, 2019 6:56 pm  

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Too right....offer me a CC win on no GF....I'd take it...but I still expect us win everything.
Another pathetic back end stretch or lose any of our 1st three games....I'll run him the airport myself.
once a wire always a wire
Re: Where will we finish Thu Nov 28, 2019 7:30 pm  

User avatarWires71 wrote:
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rubber duckie wrote:
Too right....offer me a CC win on no GF....I'd take it...but I still expect us win everything.
Another pathetic back end stretch or lose any of our 1st three games....I'll run him the airport myself.


I would take 1 GF win over all the 4 CC wins.
Re: Where will we finish Thu Nov 28, 2019 7:31 pm  

User avatarWires71 wrote:
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Superblue wrote:
And just to re- emphasise, If last season wasn’t a successful season, I’ll take another unsuccessful season this time round.


It's interesting as you claim not winning the GF as successful?
Re: Where will we finish Thu Nov 28, 2019 8:19 pm  

User avatarCaptain Hook wrote:
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Superblue wrote:
Karl Fitzpatrick, such a joker :D

He’s got us with more “ stage props” off the field than “ props” on it.

And just to re- emphasise, If last season wasn’t a successful season, I’ll take another unsuccessful season this time round.

And you will probably have a lot more elbow room while doing so
Just my opinions unless it's a FACT, in which case it's a fact.
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