christopher wrote:
But they didn't and we are where we are, what's your suggestion? shut everything down until we get a full vaccine?
There are around 600 people out of 66+Million people in hospital with Covid 19, we have to start getting back to some kind of normal.
I understand the frustration, but here are some things to think about.
Officially there have been 350,000 confirmed cases and 42,000 confirmed deaths. Both are thought to be much higher but we get into the realm of guessing. Even if the actual number of infections is 10 times higher than the confirmed number then that still means only around 5% of the UK population has been infected (a recent study in Spain estimated 5% but one in London estimated 17.5%). Whatever you think, the reason why this number is what it is is because of the lockdown and the measure currently being taken to control the spread of the disease.
The disease spread from just a few cases very rapidly and at one point was killing 1000 people a day in care homes. There are still potentially 95% of the UK population who have not had the disease.
A recent study I was involved with from one of the WHO's reference labs at Great Ormond Street run by one of the world's leading virology experts showed that protective antibody responses to Covid 19 are (as predicted) short lived. Antibodies to the Spike protein have a circulating half life of 80 days. Basically the data shows that protection from circulating antibodies in those who have had the disease is likely to correlate with that. This is supported by data from a neutralizing test we developed that they also ran. The study was run on a large number of confirmed positives from healthcare workers. This means people who were critically ill just a few months ago could indeed be now open to re-infection if we allow the virus to spread again by loosening social measures. Although this is again difficult to predict and doesn't take into account T-cell immunity and other factors and there is a lot more work to be done.
Yes, there are many arguments on many sides but I fear that people are far better informed on economic and other parts of the argument than other parts. This is natural as we all generally are.
I would say that I don't know what the "right" thing to do is and I would love to see many things opened up again. I am fortunate that I do not have to worry about my job but I don't travel anymore and won't get on a plane until I am vaccinated - my choice. The one thing that we can all agree on is that this is just a dreadful situation.