Time will tell - EU exports accounts for 7% GDP - trade with the EU has fallen by 9% in the last 16 years so perhaps the scaremongering isn't really quite accurate? Our reliance on the EU is falling - no bad thing.
I think that you ought to look at our trade with the EU as a % of all of our exports (it's around 45%), it's a HUGE figure. Our imports from the EU, taken as a percentage of their exports, although similar in pure cash terms is a single figure percentage point of all of their exports. All of the nonsense about the figures being roughly equal and that they need us as much as we need them was always a distortion of the figures. I'm sure that in time, we will find new markets for some of our products and we may also find better "deals" on some of the products that we import but, our trade with the EU hasn't been built up to current levels by accident. The geographical factors, with the ability to source and supply goods accross the channel quickly and efficiently is THE reason for the level of trade that we currently do, not to mention the finance industry, which has benefitted massively form being part of the EU "club", something which can only go in one direction, now that we have found the exit. The sun will keep on rising in the morning and the planet keep on turning and whilst we may have "taken back control", we have also scored a huge economic own goal.
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We can still import and export from the EU, just there will now be costs where before there weren't costs. That means reduced margins and reduced competitiveness compared to traders from other countries. It's similar to if a tax had been introduced.
Now if instead of Brexit, this had just been government introducing a tax (which would raise revenue that could go to fund public services), we would no doubt have been listening to lectures about how 'businesses run tight margins and can't afford these costs - it will just mean consumers end up paying more', from the same type of people who like to shrug off Brexit and say 'it is never as bad as they say it will be'.
But in the end, until Brexit has happened it's all speculation on the future. Once it has happened the effects will take place. There will be a time lag until the impact works its way through, which will give the pro-Brexiters a window with which to say 'see, the sky hasn't fallen in', but then as costs start to mount up, investment diverts out of the UK to the EU, prices rise, they will have to write a new narrative about why times were already hard and are getting harder.
No doubt it will be due to the BBC, feminists, climate protestors, the labour party, the establishment etc, anything but Brexit or the Tory government!
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Reputation Points: 145 Rep Position: 184th / 77,988 Quiz Score: 36 Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2006 4:45 pm Posts: 948 Location: Desperation Island
A long read, but a line-by-line explanation of what the future holds - and yes Brexiteers, the world of international trade is a complicated place; simplistic soundbites and 2 second understandings from a white nationalist post you read on Facebook don't help in the real world: https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2020/0 ... son-s-trad
"Brian McDermott, with a wry smile, nods when asked if he remembers a specific incident which made him realise he was a prick. 'I do', he murmurs."
Reputation Points: 181 Rep Position: 158th / 77,988 Quiz Score: 0 Joined: Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:59 am Posts: 1259
The Ghost of '99 wrote:
A long read, but a line-by-line explanation of what the future holds - and yes Brexiteers, the world of international trade is a complicated place; simplistic soundbites and 2 second understandings from a white nationalist post you read on Facebook don't help in the real world: https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2020/0 ... son-s-trad
Ah yes, the unbiased bremainer who is happy to appear on Al Jazeera.
He has a long history of peddling opinion dressed up as fact.
Reputation Points: 181 Rep Position: 158th / 77,988 Quiz Score: 0 Joined: Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:59 am Posts: 1259
King Street Cat wrote:
You'll be waiting a long time...
I tend to find I have better things to do with my time than discuss with left wing socialists who peddle politics of envy and anti progress and democracy, it is nice you guys have a place to play pretend, enjoy.
Reputation Points: 145 Rep Position: 184th / 77,988 Quiz Score: 36 Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2006 4:45 pm Posts: 948 Location: Desperation Island
IR80 wrote:
I tend to find I have better things to do with my time than discuss with left wing socialists who peddle politics of envy and anti progress and democracy, it is nice you guys have a place to play pretend, enjoy.
So what you're saying is you've got nothing to offer other than that right wing trope of questioning the patriotism of people who challenge your, let's be honest, somewhat simplistic views.
I'd ask you though, since you lazily brought it up, who or what do you think we're envious of (I assume I fall into the 'left wing socialists' bucket which seems to be anyone from John Major on left)?
"Brian McDermott, with a wry smile, nods when asked if he remembers a specific incident which made him realise he was a prick. 'I do', he murmurs."
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