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Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
Post Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:12 pm
Posted by wrencat1873 on Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:12 pm
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Sal Paradise wrote:
Time will tell - EU exports accounts for 7% GDP - trade with the EU has fallen by 9% in the last 16 years so perhaps the scaremongering isn't really quite accurate? Our reliance on the EU is falling - no bad thing.


I think that you ought to look at our trade with the EU as a % of all of our exports (it's around 45%), it's a HUGE figure.
Our imports from the EU, taken as a percentage of their exports, although similar in pure cash terms is a single figure percentage point of all of their exports.
All of the nonsense about the figures being roughly equal and that they need us as much as we need them was always a distortion of the figures.
I'm sure that in time, we will find new markets for some of our products and we may also find better "deals" on some of the products that we import but, our trade with the EU hasn't been built up to current levels by accident.
The geographical factors, with the ability to source and supply goods accross the channel quickly and efficiently is THE reason for the level of trade that we currently do, not to mention the finance industry, which has benefitted massively form being part of the EU "club", something which can only go in one direction, now that we have found the exit.
The sun will keep on rising in the morning and the planet keep on turning and whilst we may have "taken back control", we have also scored a huge economic own goal.
Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
Post Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:28 pm
Posted by sally cinnamon on Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:28 pm
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We can still import and export from the EU, just there will now be costs where before there weren't costs. That means reduced margins and reduced competitiveness compared to traders from other countries. It's similar to if a tax had been introduced.

Now if instead of Brexit, this had just been government introducing a tax (which would raise revenue that could go to fund public services), we would no doubt have been listening to lectures about how 'businesses run tight margins and can't afford these costs - it will just mean consumers end up paying more', from the same type of people who like to shrug off Brexit and say 'it is never as bad as they say it will be'.

But in the end, until Brexit has happened it's all speculation on the future. Once it has happened the effects will take place. There will be a time lag until the impact works its way through, which will give the pro-Brexiters a window with which to say 'see, the sky hasn't fallen in', but then as costs start to mount up, investment diverts out of the UK to the EU, prices rise, they will have to write a new narrative about why times were already hard and are getting harder.

No doubt it will be due to the BBC, feminists, climate protestors, the labour party, the establishment etc, anything but Brexit or the Tory government!
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Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
Post Sat Jan 25, 2020 2:03 pm
Posted by The Ghost of '99 on Sat Jan 25, 2020 2:03 pm
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A long read, but a line-by-line explanation of what the future holds - and yes Brexiteers, the world of international trade is a complicated place; simplistic soundbites and 2 second understandings from a white nationalist post you read on Facebook don't help in the real world:
https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2020/0 ... son-s-trad
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Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
Post Sat Jan 25, 2020 7:07 pm
Posted by IR80 on Sat Jan 25, 2020 7:07 pm
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The Ghost of '99 wrote:
A long read, but a line-by-line explanation of what the future holds - and yes Brexiteers, the world of international trade is a complicated place; simplistic soundbites and 2 second understandings from a white nationalist post you read on Facebook don't help in the real world:
https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2020/0 ... son-s-trad

Ah yes, the unbiased bremainer who is happy to appear on Al Jazeera.

He has a long history of peddling opinion dressed up as fact.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr Ian Dunt.
Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
Post Sat Jan 25, 2020 7:28 pm
Posted by The Ghost of '99 on Sat Jan 25, 2020 7:28 pm
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IR80 wrote:
Ah yes, the unbiased bremainer who is happy to appear on Al Jazeera.

He has a long history of peddling opinion dressed up as fact.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr Ian Dunt.
Tell us more about your detailed understanding of trade and the points of detail where you differ from his analysis.
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Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
Post Sun Jan 26, 2020 4:04 pm
Posted by King Street Cat on Sun Jan 26, 2020 4:04 pm
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The Ghost of '99 wrote:
Tell us more about your detailed understanding of trade and the points of detail where you differ from his analysis.


You'll be waiting a long time...
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Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
Post Sun Jan 26, 2020 5:05 pm
Posted by IR80 on Sun Jan 26, 2020 5:05 pm
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King Street Cat wrote:
You'll be waiting a long time...

I tend to find I have better things to do with my time than discuss with left wing socialists who peddle politics of envy and anti progress and democracy, it is nice you guys have a place to play pretend, enjoy.
Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
Post Sun Jan 26, 2020 5:32 pm
Posted by The Ghost of '99 on Sun Jan 26, 2020 5:32 pm
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IR80 wrote:
I tend to find I have better things to do with my time than discuss with left wing socialists who peddle politics of envy and anti progress and democracy, it is nice you guys have a place to play pretend, enjoy.

So what you're saying is you've got nothing to offer other than that right wing trope of questioning the patriotism of people who challenge your, let's be honest, somewhat simplistic views.

I'd ask you though, since you lazily brought it up, who or what do you think we're envious of (I assume I fall into the 'left wing socialists' bucket which seems to be anyone from John Major on left)?
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Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
Post Mon Jan 27, 2020 9:17 am
Posted by Durham Giant on Mon Jan 27, 2020 9:17 am
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Only 6 days to go until NHS funding increases by £350 million a week
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Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
Post Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:40 pm
Posted by IR80 on Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:40 pm
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Durham Giant wrote:
Only 6 days to go until NHS funding increases by £350 million a week

oh dear, just, oh dear.
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