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Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
Post Sun Oct 13, 2019 1:02 pm
Posted by Mild Rover on Sun Oct 13, 2019 1:02 pm
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Cronus wrote:
I wonder...if the EU refuse an extension (or the idiotic Benn bill is somehow circumnavigated) and the only options are Johnson's deal or no deal - what will Labour do? :EH:

I suspect if Corbyn/McDonnell try to whip them into opposing the deal we'll see enough rebels to get it through.


Labour (well the leadership at least) seem to be able to combine cynicism with stupidity on this issue, so I really don’t know. ‘Fortunately’ for them, it probably won’t come to that, but it is a question that has occurred to me too.

I think the best/least bad thing they could do would be to allow Labour MPs to vote freely, with their conscience. They’ve come this far sitting on the fence and trying to avoid upsetting either side (with limited success), so they might as well see it through. Not blocking it, but not endorsing it either. Cake and eat it sort of thing. There’ll be no credit, only blame - so making the Tories own it as far as possible should be the aim, politically.

They’ll still get an election, and any deal that Johnson strikes will likely be close enough to May’s ‘worst deal in history’, that his right flank will still be vulnerable to Farage.
'Thus I am tormented by my curiosity and humbled by my ignorance.' from History of an Old Bramin, The New York Mirror (A Weekly Journal Devoted to Literature and the Fine Arts), February 16th 1833.
Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
Post Thu Oct 17, 2019 8:37 am
Posted by wrencat1873 on Thu Oct 17, 2019 8:37 am
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So, it appears that Boris "do or die" Johnson has started to hit just the same problems as his predecessor and the "bribes" to the DUP still aren't enough to secure their backing for a deal.
Prepare for a GE with the Tories promoting a no deal Brexit - what an absolute fecking mess. :CRAZY:
Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
Post Thu Oct 17, 2019 10:14 am
Posted by Mild Rover on Thu Oct 17, 2019 10:14 am
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wrencat1873 wrote:
So, it appears that Boris "do or die" Johnson has started to hit just the same problems as his predecessor and the "bribes" to the DUP still aren't enough to secure their backing for a deal.
Prepare for a GE with the Tories promoting a no deal Brexit - what an absolute fecking mess. :CRAZY:


His deal with a confirmatory referendum vs remain, might pass parliament but I think he’s too beholden to the Brexiteers to allow/want that.

If the government proposes a bill and it is amended, does it have to proceed or can they withdraw it? I assume it has to proceed, which’d mean even proposing it carries risk for him.

Edit, the Spectator pushing the idea that the EU might tell the UK parliament that it is this deal or no deal (or, technically, Remain via unilateral revocation of article 50). It’d give them (and us) certainty but I can only see it if BJ has given up the lot on NI. Actually, it strangely offers benefits to all sides - BJ gets his deal, JC and the DUP get to blame-dodge.
'Thus I am tormented by my curiosity and humbled by my ignorance.' from History of an Old Bramin, The New York Mirror (A Weekly Journal Devoted to Literature and the Fine Arts), February 16th 1833.
Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
Post Thu Oct 17, 2019 10:28 am
Posted by wrencat1873 on Thu Oct 17, 2019 10:28 am
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Mild Rover wrote:
His deal with a confirmatory referendum vs remain, might pass parliament but I think he’s too beholden to the Brexiteers to allow/want that.

If the government proposes a bill and it is amended, does it have to proceed or can they withdraw it? I assume it has to proceed, which’d mean even proposing it carries risk for him.


I'm sure that Boris and Cummings have a couple of tricks up their collective sleeves to take us past 30th October (and a no deal Brexit) and they are doing well to keep them under wraps - time will tell.

The point regarding N. Ireland though, wont go away and increasingly it seems that either they (the politicians) trash the Good Friday Agreement too gain Brexit or we remain.
The EU wont want to continue with negotiations indefinitely and you can see the next "offer" of an extension being much longer.
2 years was muted after May's 3rd failure and that would cause a fair amount of discord amongst MP and the voting public.
Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
Post Thu Oct 17, 2019 10:43 am
Posted by tonyblaidd on Thu Oct 17, 2019 10:43 am
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The government has been thwarting Brexit since the vote was declared. They don't want what the majority of the British people want, so in affect they are traitors. That's why they chose remainer May in the first place. The EU is a gravy train that politicians have grown fat on while their consitituents face austerity measurements while at the same time criminals, terrorists, and other wasters come flooding into OUR country with more rights and given council houses with white goods.
Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
Post Thu Oct 17, 2019 10:47 am
Posted by tigertot on Thu Oct 17, 2019 10:47 am
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tonyblaidd wrote:
The government has been thwarting Brexit since the vote was declared. They don't want what the majority of the British people want, so in affect they are traitors. That's why they chose remainer May in the first place. The EU is a gravy train that politicians have grown fat on while their consitituents face austerity measurements while at the same time criminals, terrorists, and other wasters come flooding into OUR country with more rights and given council houses with white goods.

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Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
Post Thu Oct 17, 2019 10:59 am
Posted by Mild Rover on Thu Oct 17, 2019 10:59 am
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wrencat1873 wrote:
I'm sure that Boris and Cummings have a couple of tricks up their collective sleeves to take us past 30th October (and a no deal Brexit) and they are doing well to keep them under wraps - time will tell.

The point regarding N. Ireland though, wont go away and increasingly it seems that either they (the politicians) trash the Good Friday Agreement too gain Brexit or we remain.
The EU wont want to continue with negotiations indefinitely and you can see the next "offer" of an extension being much longer.
2 years was muted after May's 3rd failure and that would cause a fair amount of discord amongst MP and the voting public.


Have you seen the latest news?

Boris has committed to a deal with special arrangements that are definitely not just an updated version of the original NI-only backstop, as confirmed by Barnier and the ever-impartial Kuessenberg.

The DUP are not yet on board. They lost their veto, obviously.
'Thus I am tormented by my curiosity and humbled by my ignorance.' from History of an Old Bramin, The New York Mirror (A Weekly Journal Devoted to Literature and the Fine Arts), February 16th 1833.
Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
Post Thu Oct 17, 2019 11:32 am
Posted by wrencat1873 on Thu Oct 17, 2019 11:32 am
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Cronus wrote:
I wonder...if the EU refuse an extension (or the idiotic Benn bill is somehow circumnavigated) and the only options are Johnson's deal or no deal - what will Labour do? :EH:

I suspect if Corbyn/McDonnell try to whip them into opposing the deal we'll see enough rebels to get it through.


The splinters in Corbyn's backside must be really digging in now.
He's looked uncomfortable on Brexit for many, many weeks now, with very few of his foot soldiers having been able to convey anything close to a coherent policy.
I think that Labour are screwed for a little while, with both sides of the Brexit debate feeling let down by their will he / wont he "policy".

Having said that, I cant see the EU doing anything that may prevent a U-Turn by any new government (assuming that there is to be an election).

Everything now hinges on whether Boris does have a plan to circumvent the Benn bill.
Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
Post Thu Oct 17, 2019 12:00 pm
Posted by Mild Rover on Thu Oct 17, 2019 12:00 pm
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wrencat1873 wrote:
The splinters in Corbyn's backside must be really digging in now.
He's looked uncomfortable on Brexit for many, many weeks now, with very few of his foot soldiers having been able to convey anything close to a coherent policy.
I think that Labour are screwed for a little while, with both sides of the Brexit debate feeling let down by their will he / wont he "policy".

Having said that, I cant see the EU doing anything that may prevent a U-Turn by any new government (assuming that there is to be an election).

Everything now hinges on whether Boris does have a plan to circumvent the Benn bill.


His deal might make it through Parliament. Even if it came with a confirmatory referendum, I think it would get a majority in the country, for a variety of reasons. I mean, who’d be the face of the Remain campaign?

It’s just a re-jigged version of TM’s, with looser ties to NI accepted in return to fewer formal trade commitments made up front - but BJ has more goodwill with the ERG than TM. Just depends on whether they’re squeamish about the DUP.

It depends on your comparator, but it could be worse, imo. Damn sight better than no deal, anyway.

On your last point, I assume he needs a deal approved by Parliament, rather than just one agreed with the EU?

Another wrinkle is that NI being in a different customs territory is currently unlawful. I think there’s an arguable case that this represents that, but it might not hold water legally. It is being tested in the courts already.
'Thus I am tormented by my curiosity and humbled by my ignorance.' from History of an Old Bramin, The New York Mirror (A Weekly Journal Devoted to Literature and the Fine Arts), February 16th 1833.
Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
Post Thu Oct 17, 2019 12:16 pm
Posted by wrencat1873 on Thu Oct 17, 2019 12:16 pm
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tonyblaidd wrote:
The government has been thwarting Brexit since the vote was declared. They don't want what the majority of the British people want, so in affect they are traitors. That's why they chose remainer May in the first place. The EU is a gravy train that politicians have grown fat on while their consitituents face austerity measurements while at the same time criminals, terrorists, and other wasters come flooding into OUR country with more rights and given council houses with white goods.


Wow - straight from Daily Mail central office.

Are you blaming the EU for the 10+ years of austerity or might this have been a political choice by the Troy Party, who's drive to cut services to the poorest members of society is part of their DNA.
What percentage of our immigration numbers do you label as criminals, terrorists and wasters and are these just the EU immigrants or is it all immigrants.
Are those people working within the NHS who are from outside the UK also under your "criminals, terrorists and wasters" banner ?

Farage must be very proud of you.
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