Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Sat Sep 07, 2019 9:12 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Brexit isn't about Brexit anymore and probably never was - Brexit is about the political elite re-exerting their power. You now have a situation whereby they have decided we cannot leave and they now don't want to test the views of the nation on their behaviour. Anyone who thinks this is about what is best for the country is delusional this is about the politicians resting back control from the public. We might as well not bother with elections the politicians will do what they want. They move parties willy nilly some have represented 3 parties in the last six months such is their distain for the electorate - Phillip Lee is now a Liberal 5% voted for the Liberals in his constituency in 2017!!

You have a speaker who is supposed to be impartial who is anything but impartial - closing parliament down has been tested twice in the courts and despite Bercow's protestations has been proved to be legal.

All this outrage about the 21 Tory grandees losing the whip is just the political elite protecting their own - what has being an ex chancellor or the grandson of Winston Churchill got to do with anything? They voted against their own party what did they really expect to happen? In the commercial world you would either resigned or been sacked if you actively persued an agenda that was contrary to the agreed policy.

How could the Tories campaign on a manifesto of leaving when their own MPs would actively try to stop on a matter of personal belief (sic) Johnson had no option.

Finally you have a Labour party who say on one hand they would campaign for remain but would try and secure a deal as well - really what deal would that be? How can a party that wants to remain negotiate an exit with any conviction - its a ludicrous notion. They have been crying out for an election since 2017 now the suddenly don't want one - why if they genuinely believe no deal is not wanted and the public hate Boris they should walk it? Problem is Corbyn is 20 points behind Boris and Labour know with Corbyn in charge they have no chance. Even a vote of no confidence wouldn't lead to Corbyn being PM - if it would that is the way he would go - anything but a GE.

Ghost maybe right about the current situation in respect of paperwork - one thing is for certain those rules would change very quickly to ensure the movement of goods i.e. within days and within three months the whole system will have been overhauled. These countries change the currency arrangements and we have put several men on the moon don't suggest this is such problem it will take years to resolve.

I actually agree with much of your post.
However, assuming that Boris wins the election, albeit probably in a coalition with Farage & Co (HELP) and we leave with "no deal" which would be their favoured option, you are just wrong about how quickly new tariff's and trade deals would be arranged.
Although I agree that a way will be found to trade goods and services with the EU, our trade with the rest of the world would move to WTO terms, significantly changing the levy's on goods leaving and coming into the UK.
It's not "project fear" it's absolute fact and whilst their is no doubt work going on to try and facilitate some deals being agreed quickly, don't think for one minute that everything would return to normal quickly, it WILL take years.

Also, you mention the 21 disloyal MP voting against the government and how they should be jettisoned from the party - this is just utter hypocrisy.

How many Tories, especially the ERG members scuppered the May deal to get us into the current position ??

The one sure thing is that Boris has committed harry carry with his slender Parliamentary majority and is now politically impotent, like a hyped up stud bull with no lead in his pencil, only able to stomp about and get ever more frustrated and he has to wait for his political enemies to allow him his next move, which is utterly hilarious.

Eventually, when the election dos come around we could well be in for another hung parliament, with Boris and Farage in the blue corner and all of the rest in the "remain alliance" in the red corner and then get ready for round 2.

I think this may still have plenty of time to run and by the time the next election comes around, the UK will officially be in recession, so the heat will be cranked up further still.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Sat Sep 07, 2019 9:49 am  

Shall we see if we can find some remain-leave common ground? Can we find a consensus on the problem, if not the solution? Would anybody disagree with these being the five broad options available, and my attempt to fairly pro-con them? They all involve a degree of national humiliation, immediate or slightly postponed, but i’ve left that out as the degree is very subjective. 1. Continue delaying. Gives us more time to agree a way forward - Just extends the agony. 2. Call the whole thing off and remain. least short-term economic damage, we retain of our seat at the table - a denial of democracy, and the opportunities Brexit might offer are lost 3. Soft, technical Brexit. Just about respects the referendum result, minimal economic damage - not much changes, except we lose our seat at the table without reclaiming all that much more sovereignty. 4. Hard Brexit with agreement and transition period (May’s deal). May’s red lines are respected, and we can leave in an orderly manner - some economic damage, we have to take/accept a position on the Irish Border question now rather than later, and it falls between stools rather than being the Goldilocks Brexit she was aiming for. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pm-s ... -vbds9qn0m 5. No deal. Rips the plaster off and respects the referendum result - questionable mandate, limited support (although arguably not that limited: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49551893), most economically damaging, we get to reflect on the Irish border issue being a double-edged sword, and the future relationship negotiations might tend to the frosty or slow Would we agree that all the options are politically difficult and lack broad public support (or certainly majority support)? And that the prospects of a compromise solution seem more remote than ever?

Shall we see if we can find some remain-leave common ground? Can we find a consensus on the problem, if not the solution? Would anybody disagree with these being the five broad options available, and my attempt to fairly pro-con them? They all involve a degree of national humiliation, immediate or slightly postponed, but i’ve left that out as the degree is very subjective. 1. Continue delaying. Gives us more time to agree a way forward - Just extends the agony. 2. Call the whole thing off and remain. least short-term economic damage, we retain of our seat at the table - a denial of democracy, and the opportunities Brexit might offer are lost 3. Soft, technical Brexit. Just about respects the referendum result, minimal economic damage - not much changes, except we lose our seat at the table without reclaiming all that much more sovereignty. 4. Hard Brexit with agreement and transition period (May’s deal). May’s red lines are respected, and we can leave in an orderly manner - some economic damage, we have to take/accept a position on the Irish Border question now rather than later, and it falls between stools rather than being the Goldilocks Brexit she was aiming for. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pm-s ... -vbds9qn0m 5. No deal. Rips the plaster off and respects the referendum result - questionable mandate, limited support (although arguably not that limited: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49551893), most economically damaging, we get to reflect on the Irish border issue being a double-edged sword, and the future relationship negotiations might tend to the frosty or slow Would we agree that all the options are politically difficult and lack broad public support (or certainly majority support)? And that the prospects of a compromise solution seem more remote than ever?

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Sat Sep 07, 2019 10:09 am  

Mild Rover wrote: Shall we see if we can find some remain-leave common ground? Can we find a consensus on the problem, if not the solution? Would anybody disagree with these being the five broad options available, and my attempt to fairly pro-con them? They all involve a degree of national humiliation, immediate or slightly postponed, but i’ve left that out as the degree is very subjective. 1. Continue delaying. Gives us more time to agree a way forward - Just extends the agony. 2. Call the whole thing off and remain. least short-term economic damage, we retain of our seat at the table - a denial of democracy, and the opportunities Brexit might offer are lost 3. Soft, technical Brexit. Just about respects the referendum result, minimal economic damage - not much changes, except we lose our seat at the table without reclaiming all that much more sovereignty. 4. Hard Brexit with agreement and transition period (May’s deal). May’s red lines are respected, and we can leave in an orderly manner - some economic damage, we have to take/accept a position on the Irish Border question now rather than later, and it falls between stools rather than being the Goldilocks Brexit she was aiming for. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pm-s ... -vbds9qn0m 5. No deal. Rips the plaster off and respects the referendum result - questionable mandate, limited support (although arguably not that limited: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49551893), most economically damaging, we get to reflect on the Irish border issue being a double-edged sword, and the future relationship negotiations might tend to the frosty or slow Would we agree that all the options are politically difficult and lack broad public support (or certainly majority support)? And that the prospects of a compromise solution seem more remote than ever? I've spoken to Jeremy and he says we should go for "all of the above" and then have a confirmatory referendum afterwards, just to make sure

Mild Rover wrote: Shall we see if we can find some remain-leave common ground? Can we find a consensus on the problem, if not the solution? Would anybody disagree with these being the five broad options available, and my attempt to fairly pro-con them? They all involve a degree of national humiliation, immediate or slightly postponed, but i’ve left that out as the degree is very subjective. 1. Continue delaying. Gives us more time to agree a way forward - Just extends the agony. 2. Call the whole thing off and remain. least short-term economic damage, we retain of our seat at the table - a denial of democracy, and the opportunities Brexit might offer are lost 3. Soft, technical Brexit. Just about respects the referendum result, minimal economic damage - not much changes, except we lose our seat at the table without reclaiming all that much more sovereignty. 4. Hard Brexit with agreement and transition period (May’s deal). May’s red lines are respected, and we can leave in an orderly manner - some economic damage, we have to take/accept a position on the Irish Border question now rather than later, and it falls between stools rather than being the Goldilocks Brexit she was aiming for. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pm-s ... -vbds9qn0m 5. No deal. Rips the plaster off and respects the referendum result - questionable mandate, limited support (although arguably not that limited: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49551893), most economically damaging, we get to reflect on the Irish border issue being a double-edged sword, and the future relationship negotiations might tend to the frosty or slow Would we agree that all the options are politically difficult and lack broad public support (or certainly majority support)? And that the prospects of a compromise solution seem more remote than ever? I've spoken to Jeremy and he says we should go for "all of the above" and then have a confirmatory referendum afterwards, just to make sure

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Sat Sep 07, 2019 10:15 am  

I never said we would it would be a quick resolution to agree trade deals - what I said was we would resolve the movement of goods. Once you get used to WTO terms then things will settle down.

This is the difference between Johnson and May is he is prepared to exert a degree of control - I agree with him - this concept of personal belief is rubbish, Hammond voted with the government when he was up May bum now its Boris he has suddenly defected!! Guarantee if May had gone for a no deal Hammond would have supported. This is simply a hissy fit at his fall from grace and status

I agree about Boris he now looks to lack any gravitas - I personally think he will resign before an election is called no way he can go an ask for an extension. The longer the opposition delay the stronger he looks, it is hilarious that Corbyn has bayed for an election for two years and when he gets an opportunity he bottles it. Parliament closing will work in Boris' favour he is floundering it will give him breathing space to get his act together and it will Cummins more space to work his magic.

He has to resolve the Farage issue - they cannot stand in the same seats or the Brexit party will draw votes from the Tories and will increase the chance of Labour winning. Same goes for Labour and the Lib-Dems.

I don't think the population are feeling like we are in a recession - employment is high wages are rising inflation is low - economic management is a Tory strong point IMO its the biggest issue for Labour will the voters trust them when they want to deliver hard left principles i.e. nationalise as much as possible and repeal union laws. The idea that taxing the rich i.e. the top 5% will fund all their plans simply doesn't stack up.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Sat Sep 07, 2019 10:42 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

I never said we would it would be a quick resolution to agree trade deals - what I said was we would resolve the movement of goods. Once you get used to WTO terms then things will settle down.

This is the difference between Johnson and May is he is prepared to exert a degree of control - I agree with him - this concept of personal belief is rubbish, Hammond voted with the government when he was up May bum now its Boris he has suddenly defected!! Guarantee if May had gone for a no deal Hammond would have supported. This is simply a hissy fit at his fall from grace and status

I agree about Boris he now looks to lack any gravitas - I personally think he will resign before an election is called no way he can go an ask for an extension. The longer the opposition delay the stronger he looks, it is hilarious that Corbyn has bayed for an election for two years and when he gets an opportunity he bottles it. Parliament closing will work in Boris' favour he is floundering it will give him breathing space to get his act together and it will Cummins more space to work his magic.

He has to resolve the Farage issue - they cannot stand in the same seats or the Brexit party will draw votes from the Tories and will increase the chance of Labour winning. Same goes for Labour and the Lib-Dems.

I don't think the population are feeling like we are in a recession - employment is high wages are rising inflation is low - economic management is a Tory strong point IMO its the biggest issue for Labour will the voters trust them when they want to deliver hard left principles i.e. nationalise as much as possible and repeal union laws. The idea that taxing the rich i.e. the top 5% will fund all their plans simply doesn't stack up.

You're at it again, just trotting out the Tory line.

IF Corbyn had agreed to a 15th October election, Boris, after agreeing to do this, would have just delayed the election until after 31st October, forcing through a no deal Brexit Hence Tony Blairs speech and warning.

Mind you, having now sacked 21 of his own MP's, he has now become impotent and his party are effectively no longer in power.

It was just "lucky" that some people actually peered round the corner rather than trusted Mr Johnson (deliberate oxymoron there)

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Sat Sep 07, 2019 10:53 am  

I find the whole situation bizarre in the extreme. I follow just out of interest Paul Mason on Twitter, at the moment they are organising protests around the country. He was chanting the other day Johnson we are coming to get you, we will remove you and your lack of democracy. If you want to remove him tell your mate Corbyn to call an election, it’s relatively simple.
The Labour position of not leaving without a deal is also absurd. The EU have made it quite clear the May deal is not open for discussion. That’s the only deal in town, that deal was voted down 3 times, especially by the Labour Party.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Sat Sep 07, 2019 11:08 am  

I completely agree about Labour’s position being a mess. Irrespective of his politics Corbyn just isn’t a leader. No shame in that, but it is a problem.

However, I think the reason they’re getting away with election dodging (apart from the country being polarised) is because they will accept one as soon as an immediate back door no deal is blocked.

Johnson can call it cowardice, but bravery in the face of an openly duplicitous PM would be of the variety Sir Humphrey Appleby used to warn against. Stupidity is worse than cowardice, especially temporary cowardice.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Sat Sep 07, 2019 11:15 am  

Backwoodsman wrote:

I find the whole situation bizarre in the extreme. I follow just out of interest Paul Mason on Twitter, at the moment they are organising protests around the country. He was chanting the other day Johnson we are coming to get you, we will remove you and your lack of democracy. If you want to remove him tell your mate Corbyn to call an election, it’s relatively simple.
The Labour position of not leaving without a deal is also absurd. The EU have made it quite clear the May deal is not open for discussion. That’s the only deal in town, that deal was voted down 3 times, especially by the Labour Party.

Tbf, in the probably unlikely event of Labour winning a majority the EU would likely re-open negotiations based on their more moderate position - if they finally choose just one. The issue would be that even if it all went smoothly, it’d take a good amount of time. Well into 2020, I imagine. And Labour then get stuck holding the Brexit blame ball.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Sat Sep 07, 2019 11:47 am  

Backwoodsman wrote:

I find the whole situation bizarre in the extreme. I follow just out of interest Paul Mason on Twitter, at the moment they are organising protests around the country. He was chanting the other day Johnson we are coming to get you, we will remove you and your lack of democracy. If you want to remove him tell your mate Corbyn to call an election, it’s relatively simple.
The Labour position of not leaving without a deal is also absurd. The EU have made it quite clear the May deal is not open for discussion. That’s the only deal in town, that deal was voted down 3 times, especially by the Labour Party.

The Labour party voted against the withdrawal bill because it was a hard, Tory-style Brexit. When the Conservatives went down that route they should have been very sure they could marshall their own MPs behind it because it was a very partisan approach to take in the Commons.

The EU would happily re-open negotiations if there was a material change in the British position - i.e. the red lines laid down by May, which she was not obliged to create, weren't mandated by the referendum and which made passing anything so much harder, would not apply if say a Corbyn government came in with their own priorities for what to get out of the process of our leaving.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Sat Sep 07, 2019 12:29 pm  

Backwoodsman wrote:

I find the whole situation bizarre in the extreme. I follow just out of interest Paul Mason on Twitter, at the moment they are organising protests around the country. He was chanting the other day Johnson we are coming to get you, we will remove you and your lack of democracy. If you want to remove him tell your mate Corbyn to call an election, it’s relatively simple.
The Labour position of not leaving without a deal is also absurd. The EU have made it quite clear the May deal is not open for discussion. That’s the only deal in town, that deal was voted down 3 times, especially by the Labour Party.

Labours position (I think) is very different to the Tories and they would seek "A customs union", which, although meaning that we would still need to contribute to the EU (as Norway does), it would theoretically allow the UK to strike its own trade deals with the rest of the world.
To those not entrenched in either "leave" or "remain", this does seem like some sort of middle ground bur, it certainly wont appease the ERG or the right wing of the Tory party.