Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:14 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

What about trade, free trade arrangement or, tariffs in both directions (which would be a disaster in Ireland)

This will form part of the second tranche i.e. complete in time for next GE - existing terms to be in place whilst negotiations continue.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:19 pm  

WIZEB wrote:

The plan was to convince the British voting public that there were to many parsnip picking Poles in the arable fields of rural Lincolnshire.
Genius.
The legalities of the extrication process from our European allies was always something to worry about at a later date.

The plan was always to highlight to extent to which we had to adhere to the rules passed down by the EU and our complete lack of any real power to genuinely influence these decisions. There were also issues around the profligate nature of the EU Bureaucracy and the threat of immigration and the lowering of wages as a result. The billions we paid in was just icing on the cake.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:21 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

This will form part of the second tranche i.e. complete in time for next GE - existing terms to be in place whilst negotiations continue.

So a de facto extension? I agree to a point.

However, I can imagine some hardcore Brexiteers being less than thrilled about the ECJ’s ongoing jurisdiction up close to the next UK election.

If we have to keep paying in to retain access that’ll be a lead balloon for some, especially without representation. Also the EU won’t want to leave trade freedoms unchanged too long, when we’ve opted out of freedom off movement.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:32 pm  

Mild Rover wrote:

So a de facto extension? I agree to a point.

However, I can imagine some hardcore Brexiteers being less than thrilled about the ECJ’s ongoing jurisdiction up close to the next UK election.

If we have to keep paying in to retain access that’ll be a lead balloon for some, especially without representation. Also the EU won’t want to leave trade freedoms unchanged too long, when we’ve opted out of freedom off movement.

The ECJ will be dealt with in tranche one - the trade option is as much a benefit to the EU as it is to the UK - so it can be sold on that basis - especially if there is a genuine effort to carve out a new deal

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:22 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

The ECJ will be dealt with in tranche one - the trade option is as much a benefit to the EU as it is to the UK - so it can be sold on that basis - especially if there is a genuine effort to carve out a new deal

I don’t think there can realistically be continuation of existing terms without a continuing role for the ECJ in those areas; it isn’t a standalone issue that can be dealt with in the first tranche unless that first tranche is more comprehensive than I think you mean.

Trade in goods will be fine I imagine (although less alignment will mean more friction) but I think they’ll want to limit access to their markets for services in the first part of the deal. Both to show ASAP that exiting isn’t a cake and eat it option, and because it is area where national governments see an opportunity to grow their domestic sector.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:57 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

the trade option is as much a benefit to the EU as it is to the UK - so it can be sold on that basis

Of all the Brexiteer delusions, this is one that I can't believe still persists despite the facts repeatedly being presented.

The EU accounts for about 48% of British exports. The UK accounts for about 6% of exports from the EU27. Their export businesses would be upset to lose us. Our export businesses would be devastated.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Fri Jan 24, 2020 5:56 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

The plan was always to highlight to extent to which we had to adhere to the rules passed down by the EU and our complete lack of any real power to genuinely influence these decisions. There were also issues around the profligate nature of the EU Bureaucracy and the threat of immigration and the lowering of wages as a result. The billions we paid in was just icing on the cake.

Have you replaced your wooden garden fence panels with wrought iron?
Build them high. Build them tall.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Fri Jan 24, 2020 7:37 am  

Johnson and his party are totally tied to Brexit so whatever the outcome and the lies made people will actually now see what it means to their lives be it good or bad. They cannot hide behind the unknown of Brexit.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:54 am  

The Ghost of '99 wrote:

Of all the Brexiteer delusions, this is one that I can't believe still persists despite the facts repeatedly being presented.

The EU accounts for about 48% of British exports. The UK accounts for about 6% of exports from the EU27. Their export businesses would be upset to lose us. Our export businesses would be devastated.

Time will tell - EU exports accounts for 7% GDP - trade with the EU has fallen by 9% in the last 16 years so perhaps the scaremongering isn't really quite accurate? Our reliance on the EU is falling - no bad thing.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:27 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Time will tell - EU exports accounts for 7% GDP - trade with the EU has fallen by 9% in the last 16 years so perhaps the scaremongering isn't really quite accurate? Our reliance on the EU is falling - no bad thing.

I think that 7% is just for goods or services. For both together, it’d be roughly double.