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Re: Brexit Anyone? (2)
Post Thu May 17, 2018 1:05 pm
Posted by majorhound on Thu May 17, 2018 1:05 pm
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Cronus wrote:
Unlike Jeremy Corbyn and his cronies, of course, whose stance on various issues (especially Brexit) swings and changes as part of their cynical vote-winning strategy.

A blatant example would be their u-turn on the customs union. Contrary to the previous party line, Corbyn suddenly decided the UK would stay in the customs union, but an all-singing, all-dancing bespoke customs union offering the absolutely perfect Brexit scenario in some weird dreamland.

He knows the EU would sooner invade Crimea that agree to his claims, yet Labour shout it from the rooftops knowing some people will be fooled. Even many Labour MPs and voters were up in arms. Cynical and dishonest.

It's THAT important to them.


Why are you quoting Corbyn to me? I thought I made my thoughts on Corbyn's antics crystal clear a post or two ago. If Corbyn wants to retain the young peoples' votes who flocked to Labour last year he should get his act together where Brexit is concerned. Again as I posted earlier, with Labour, the SNP, the Lib/Dems and dissident Tories there is an anti Brexit majority in the Commons. Mr Corbyn should wise up. It's not the 70's. The Soviet Union no longer exists, and the only resemblance Russia bears to it is in its suppression of its people. Come down off the fence and lead the opposition for once.
Re: Brexit Anyone? (2)
Post Sat May 19, 2018 5:17 am
Posted by Sal Paradise on Sat May 19, 2018 5:17 am
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bren2k wrote:
What if I voted to give 350 million quid a week to the NHS?


Of course you did :D
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Re: Brexit Anyone? (2)
Post Fri May 25, 2018 7:59 am
Posted by wrencat1873 on Fri May 25, 2018 7:59 am
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After Mark Carney's pretty damning report as to the financial effects of Brexit, suggesting that each household is already £900 / year worse off, mainly due to the weaker value of the £ following the referendum result and the expected additional squeeze on real income, once we are actually out.https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media ... 7298EA8163.

Could some of our "experts" who are in the "leave" camp, please explain the negative effect of the past 40 years of membership of the Common Market and EU.

Apart from the headline grabbing issues surrounding the European Courts and the rules regarding "straight bananas".

Fundamentally, how has the UK been "damaged" by our continued membership ?
Re: Brexit Anyone? (2)
Post Fri May 25, 2018 12:16 pm
Posted by Sal Paradise on Fri May 25, 2018 12:16 pm
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Who is to say the £ wouldn't have tanked even if we had stayed in?

The value of the £ is about speculation rather than reality and there are a number of factors that determine the demand for a currency.

In terms of what it has cost us to be members of the EU - let's start with the value of our net contributions to the EU - how many billions is that?
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Re: Brexit Anyone? (2)
Post Fri May 25, 2018 1:28 pm
Posted by wrencat1873 on Fri May 25, 2018 1:28 pm
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Sal Paradise wrote:
Who is to say the £ wouldn't have tanked even if we had stayed in?

The value of the £ is about speculation rather than reality and there are a number of factors that determine the demand for a currency.

In terms of what it has cost us to be members of the EU - let's start with the value of our net contributions to the EU - how many billions is that?


Come on Sal, that's not even funny.

The value of the pound fluctuates all the time.

However, the instant drop, which occurred at the very moment that "brexit" became likely, is down to the "no" vote and to attempt to slant it in any other direction just makes you look daft/desperate.

IF Carney is right, it may not quite be the "cliff edge" that some politicians have been talking about.
However, a couple of grand per household, every year, just so that we can pretend that we have "control" is a huge price to pay and will very quickly overtake our net contributions (we'll not count any benefits of membership at this stage as this would make our position look even more bleak).

We're still awaiting Mrs May's fantasy solution to "customs union" and a "frictionless" border between Ireland and N.Ireland.

The 12 cabinet ministers cannot agree the way forward, let alone "selling" their idea (assuming they can agree on one) to Parliament, The EU and the general public.
Re: Brexit Anyone? (2)
Post Sat May 26, 2018 5:17 am
Posted by Sal Paradise on Sat May 26, 2018 5:17 am
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The instant drop was because those traders who deal in this area took a view on the currency it is as simple as that. The cost of raising bonds doesn't appear to be costing the government anymore which is a much better indicator of the real view of the economy from the outside world.

The remainers all said a no vote would be catastrophic for the economy - as yet that hasn't proved to be the case - inflation hasn't gone through the roof - interest rates haven't moved - unemployment has gone down and wages look like they are on the up.

A couple of grand per household suggests you don't have an alternative as to how you spend your money - why can you not buy British goods that will not be impacted by the leave vote - perhaps that is a positive externality of the vote? Carney is without doubt the worst forecaster he has yet to get a forecast correct - so I would take everything he says with a pinch of salt.


The biggest costs in a household are mortgage/rent - utilities - not impacted by EU, Food - possible to avoid much of the impact by selective buying, fuel - price fluctuation nothing to do with EU membership. Council tax - adversely impact by being a member so potentially a gain. Clothes again most are manufactured in the far east so limited impact.

I always thought we would end up with WTO tarrifs - let's face it plenty of countries trade with the EU that are not members so why can't we? It is not as if we are a huge manufacturing powerhouse anymore?

On Ireland the idea that if there is no border huge amounts of goods are going to flow across the border is quite simply a stupid notion. The north is a small place so there is so much it can consume and it is an island so it would all have to be smuggled off the island there are only so many BMW's you can get away with.


I ask again - what have been our net contributions to the EU in 40 years of members I bet in today's value close to £500bn
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Re: Brexit Anyone? (2)
Post Sat May 26, 2018 2:06 pm
Posted by wrencat1873 on Sat May 26, 2018 2:06 pm
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Sal Paradise wrote:
The instant drop was because those traders who deal in this area took a view on the currency it is as simple as that. The cost of raising bonds doesn't appear to be costing the government anymore which is a much better indicator of the real view of the economy from the outside world.

The remainers all said a no vote would be catastrophic for the economy - as yet that hasn't proved to be the case - inflation hasn't gone through the roof - interest rates haven't moved - unemployment has gone down and wages look like they are on the up.

A couple of grand per household suggests you don't have an alternative as to how you spend your money - why can you not buy British goods that will not be impacted by the leave vote - perhaps that is a positive externality of the vote? Carney is without doubt the worst forecaster he has yet to get a forecast correct - so I would take everything he says with a pinch of salt.


The biggest costs in a household are mortgage/rent - utilities - not impacted by EU, Food - possible to avoid much of the impact by selective buying, fuel - price fluctuation nothing to do with EU membership. Council tax - adversely impact by being a member so potentially a gain. Clothes again most are manufactured in the far east so limited impact.

I always thought we would end up with WTO tarrifs - let's face it plenty of countries trade with the EU that are not members so why can't we? It is not as if we are a huge manufacturing powerhouse anymore?

On Ireland the idea that if there is no border huge amounts of goods are going to flow across the border is quite simply a stupid notion. The north is a small place so there is so much it can consume and it is an island so it would all have to be smuggled off the island there are only so many BMW's you can get away with.


I ask again - what have been our net contributions to the EU in 40 years of members I bet in today's value close to £500bn


You are very flippant with a drop of "a couple of grand per household".
For many people, certainly those at the lower end of the wage scale, this would be absolutely huge, although, as the figure is an average, this monetary effect would affect those on higher household incomes by far more than those at the bottom of the scale.

Again, you seem to be in utter denial about the currency shift and the subsequent impact on trade in the UK.

As a huge net importer, particularly in "visible" trade, the effect is significant and although many companies have tried to absorb some of this increased cost and delayed increasing consumer prices, again, you are in denial.

Haven't you noticed the good that you buy, either increasing in price and/or shrinking in size ??

Regarding our trade with the EU, of course this is critical to The UK's future.

Although trade in both directions (EU - UK and UK - EU) could be said to be similar, the imported goods are spread between 26 countries, whereas our trade with the EU is from 1 (unless you say that the UK is 3 nations). Again, you are in denial.

As for our net contributions, some would say this has been money well spent and of course, they haven't always been at current levels and the cost of being on the outside looks to be significantly higher so, in actual fact, we would still be "winning".

I'm pleased that Mr Farage & Co have done such a good "selling" job on you and I just hope that he is somewhere near right but, sadly, I fear that he's a long way from being right and assuming that we wish to continue supplying the £250 billion to the EU, we will still have to comply with their rules and regulations, oh the irony :SUBMISSION:
Re: Brexit Anyone? (2)
Post Sat May 26, 2018 2:31 pm
Posted by majorhound on Sat May 26, 2018 2:31 pm
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[I'm pleased that Mr Farage & Co have done such a good "selling" job on you and I just hope that he is somewhere near right but, sadly, I fear that he's a long way from being right and assuming that we wish to continue supplying the £250 billion to the EU, we will still have to comply with their rules and regulations, oh the irony :SUBMISSION:[/quote]

Mr Farage & Co don't care whether they are right or wrong as long as they get us out. They have selfish reasons of their own for wanting this outcome. No doubt once we are out and all considerably poorer, they (or those backing Farage) will make they're true intentions clear.
Re: Brexit Anyone? (2)
Post Sat May 26, 2018 7:50 pm
Posted by Sal Paradise on Sat May 26, 2018 7:50 pm
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wrencat1873 wrote:
You are very flippant with a drop of "a couple of grand per household".
For many people, certainly those at the lower end of the wage scale, this would be absolutely huge, although, as the figure is an average, this monetary effect would affect those on higher household incomes by far more than those at the bottom of the scale.

Again, you seem to be in utter denial about the currency shift and the subsequent impact on trade in the UK.

As a huge net importer, particularly in "visible" trade, the effect is significant and although many companies have tried to absorb some of this increased cost and delayed increasing consumer prices, again, you are in denial.

Haven't you noticed the good that you buy, either increasing in price and/or shrinking in size ??

Regarding our trade with the EU, of course this is critical to The UK's future.

Although trade in both directions (EU - UK and UK - EU) could be said to be similar, the imported goods are spread between 26 countries, whereas our trade with the EU is from 1 (unless you say that the UK is 3 nations). Again, you are in denial.

As for our net contributions, some would say this has been money well spent and of course, they haven't always been at current levels and the cost of being on the outside looks to be significantly higher so, in actual fact, we would still be "winning".

I'm pleased that Mr Farage & Co have done such a good "selling" job on you and I just hope that he is somewhere near right but, sadly, I fear that he's a long way from being right and assuming that we wish to continue supplying the £250 billion to the EU, we will still have to comply with their rules and regulations, oh the irony :SUBMISSION:


Seems to me you have swallowed Carney's line hook line and sinker - Carney is a terrible forecaster - look at his record he changes his views as often as he changes his underwear - he is also a remainer so will always paint a picture based on that view!!

A couple of grand could be a couple of hundred - the scare tactics of the remainers hasn't quite come to fruition yet - something you are in total denial of.

The value of the pound yes went down when the leave vote won, not quite as much as when the financial crisis hit - does that indicate we are materially worse off than we were the day before - no its purely currency speculation. As I said has the interest the government needs to pay on its bonds hasn't risen which suggests those with the big bucks see UK bonds as pretty safe. Perhaps more safe than the likes of Greece, Italy, Spain - all the countries we would be supporting with our contributions.

Would you say a lower pound helps or hinders exports?

Have I seen the cost of things going up - fuel yes, beer yes but has my food shop gone up - not really has my council tax gone up it sure has - I wonder why that is? The price of my new BMW has actually fallen, I bought a new TV £400 roughly half what I paid for a smaller TV 5 years ago - same make.

So let's tackle a couple items you seem to want to avoid discussing: The irish border - seriously how much contraband is going to move through the border - more or less than already crosses the borders all over the EU?

How is that all the other non-Eu countries manage to trade quite successfully with the EU without having to pay in or comply with their rules - how does that happen - there is life outside of the EU.

Just how much have we paid in to the EU in 40 years - perhaps we could have used these monies in a more constructive manner than it has been spent by the EU.

The idea that when we leave all our exports will suddenly dry up does really stack up now does it.
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Re: Brexit Anyone? (2)
Post Sun May 27, 2018 6:19 am
Posted by The Ghost of '99 on Sun May 27, 2018 6:19 am
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Sal Paradise wrote:
Just how much have we paid in to the EU in 40 years - perhaps we could have used these monies in a more constructive manner than it has been spent by the EU.
This is perhaps the most simplistic of Brexiter's many simple views of the world. It's all black/white, our money/no benefit. The idea of the EU, proven over many years is mutual economic benefit. We get access to the markets of other countries, they get access to ours. We pay more into the central funds because we are rich. But then EU expenditures help areas become more prosperous so they can buy more of our goods and have better infrastructure so our goods can get to market more quickly.

The UK's economic performance before and after being in the EU are so divergent (and our economy post vote so divergent from other economies) that the factual benefits of membership are so obvious that it's increasingly rare to find a Brexiter dispute them. Instead they are retreating to their nationalistic "control" argument despite all plausible scenarios leaving us with less control and no say in the rules we will inevitably have to abide by.
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