4th Spot - the poisoned chalice? : Sun Jul 08, 2012 6:34 am  

Wrote this on a thread on the VT in reply to who people think would finish 4th at the end of the season after once again reading someone write that they think finishing 5th is better than 4th just because it's happened once. It has a little list/stats table at the end and i know we all love a good list

..........

I'd say Saints for 4th, Leeds have to win 6 of 7 i think and tough away games against Catalans, Hudds and Hull KR (where we haven't travelled too well to recently). A lot depends of next weekends CC semi's, if Leeds and/or Hudds get through to the final you can count them out of 4th spot because i think getting to Wembley will cost you at least 1 extra defeat in the league. Saints can and have been able to focus solely on the league since the quarter finals exit.

I do laugh at how many people now think that 5th is the spot to be in the league simply because Leeds did it last year. 12 months ago people said you couldn't win it unless you finish top 4, now it seems that finishing 3rd or 4th is the impossible goal, strange considering Saints came within a whisker of doing it from 3rd and before anybody is daft enough to say their is a difference between 3rd or 4th please don't. If the Top 8 Playoffs have proved anything its shown how tough it is to go from the high of winning the CC Final and getting yourself up for another charge within a few weeks. For me Wigan were actually the best team last year but missed out on top spot by 1 point, had Wire won the CC Quarter Final meeting between the two at HJ then i think Wigan would of profitted in the league.

Until a team other than Leeds, Saints or Wigan win a Grand Final from outside the top 4 then i'll believe finishing 5th-8th has advantages over 3rd and 4th. I pick those 3 teams as those clubs (along with Bradford around a decade ago) are the best playoffs teams. If you exclude defeats against Wigan/Saints/Bradford then in the whole history of the Playoffs Leeds have only lost to other opposition twice, Wire '06 and Cas '99. Wigan only once, Cas again in '99. Not 100% sure about Saints, could only go back to 2004 but they hadn't lost to any other team apart from a Leeds/Wigan/Bradford and given they won the GF in '99 '00 and '02 they can't be many if any at all.
Until some of these other teams change them numbers then no other team is going to win from 5th or lower because they don't have the Playoff experience or approach right yet, they could win from top 4 like Wire and Catalans battling for 2nd place currently but if either dropped as low as 5th then they wouldn't.

Records since 2007, the year after Hull managed to get to Old Trafford (without having beat Leeds, Wigan or Saints on the way)

.............. Overall ...... vs Saints/Wigan/Leeds ........ vs Other teams
LEEDS ........ 12-3 ................ 7-3 ....................... 5-0
WIGAN ........ 10-6 ............... 2-6 ...................... 8-0
SAINTS ......... 8-5 ............... 5-5 ....................... 3-0
...................................................................16-0

Re: 4th Spot - the poisoned chalice? : Sun Jul 08, 2012 9:10 am  

Personally I want the team to finish as high up as possible. I think difference between the three teams you mention plus Wire is that they all go into the season wanting to win the Grand Final. The rest all say their aim to make the top eight or the top four. Hudds maybe aim to get to the final. Come the play offs most of them have therefore achieved their aims for the season. Whilst they don't want to exactly lose the play off games they have tended either to fail to go up that additional level or don't have the ability to do so.

The OP on that thread made a case that 4th was worse than 5th, citing Leeds in 2010 and 2011. I disagree. We went to Pieland in the first round after running 4th in 2010 and won. Which then put us in exactly the same place as we had been for so many of the previous years - requiring to win a play off semi at home the week before the final. That we lost the latter was partly due to the lack of McGuire and Peacock but, regardless, it was probably infinitely preferable to going to Wire as we had to do in 2011.

Either way, teams with winning mentalities and the ability to raise their games to a play off standard should have little fear of whatever system is in play; indeed they should relish the challenge. Angling to get an "easier" draw in the early rounds is a loser mentality that deserves to meet the failure it so often has.

Re: 4th Spot - the poisoned chalice? : Sun Jul 08, 2012 9:19 am  

I believe it's in Leeds best interests to secure an easy home draw against whipping boy SL rabble in Week 1 of the playoffs.

Re: 4th Spot - the poisoned chalice? : Sun Jul 08, 2012 9:25 am  

right on que.

clockwork.

Re: 4th Spot - the poisoned chalice? : Sun Jul 08, 2012 1:46 pm  

if only things like the weather were as easy to predict as Jeff .

Re: 4th Spot - the poisoned chalice? : Sun Jul 08, 2012 6:41 pm  

To get to GF you have to play 1 easy game 1 tough game and 1 very difficult game if you finish 5th!!
To get to GF you have to play 2 very difficult games if you finish 4th!!

Which is the easier path?

I know which one i would want!!

Re: 4th Spot - the poisoned chalice? : Sun Jul 08, 2012 6:58 pm  

jarvis12345 wrote:

To get to GF you have to play 1 easy game 1 tough game and 1 very difficult game if you finish 5th!!
To get to GF you have to play 2 very difficult games if you finish 4th!!

Which is the easier path?

I know which one i would want!!

The one where you can lose one of the difficult games and still get through?

Re: 4th Spot - the poisoned chalice? : Sun Jul 08, 2012 7:47 pm  

craigizzard wrote:

The one where you can lose one of the difficult games and still get through?

No

Re: 4th Spot - the poisoned chalice? : Sun Jul 08, 2012 8:05 pm  

jarvis12345 wrote:

To get to GF you have to play 1 easy game 1 tough game and 1 very difficult game if you finish 5th!!
To get to GF you have to play 2 very difficult games if you finish 4th!!

Which is the easier path?

I know which one i would want!!

I'm glad this Leeds team doesn't have this triangulating, loser, "what's the easiest way to do this" mentality when it comes to the play offs.

Re: 4th Spot - the poisoned chalice? : Sun Jul 08, 2012 8:15 pm  

craigizzard wrote:

The one where you can lose one of the difficult games and still get through?

People seem to forget this part for some reason.