Australia is without its two Dally M winners of 2014. Johnathan Thurston's absence has got to be worth at least 12 points for Australia. Jarryd Hayne's absence is worth at least another 6. That means a total of 18 points that Australia would have scored had those two been playing.
I predict that either Shaun Johnson or Jason Tamaulolo will win it for New Zealand by virtue of their overall game performance, as man of the match. They are both exceptional talents. Tamaulolo is the best attacking back rower in the world.
Australia has picked only one specialist prop, New Zealand has picked three.
But coach Stephen Kearney has gone for mobility with an abundance of fast and agile back rowers.
New Zealand's only real weakness is full back/centre/five eighth Gerard Beale playing on the wing. Whichever Australian he is marking (Tupou or Mansour) is much better than him.
