Australia, for the reasons mentioned above.
We may just about (if everything goes our way) squeak past NZ but, Australia don't have to get out of 2nd gear to beat us.
It's not a good feeling to aim for 2nd but realistically, it's the best that we can hope for, especially away from home. I still get nightmares about the first half at Elland Road in 2004 when the Aussies gave us a lesson in how to play RL.