Rugbynomics : Tue Jul 10, 2012 1:56 am
|
First post in a while, been busy with exams, but finished up now ^^
I know the mood here is angry/annoyed/disappointed, but I think that with Brown looking to be on his last legs as Fartown's coach, the obvious question seems to be - where do we go from here? Ladies and Gentlemen, I think I know where. Billy Beane of the Oakland Athletic's baseball team, as some of you may be aware, attempted to compete with the bigger and richer franchises by using statistics over traditional scouts, in order to assess which players were as good as the star players, but were undervalued. The may have been undervalued for personal problems, for their unorthodox methods, or just for their age/background. The method was called Moneyball and it led them to game-wide recognition and a record 20 game streak in the MLB. How does this relate to Huddersfield Giants? It does massively, because I feel we can plant this system into Super League and gain an equal foothold with Wigan and St Helens and Leeds, who's reputations herald their crop of players to be of a 'higher quality' and they are an established club with an established fan-base. They have the advantage, because in a world where in theory all teams will spend the same, who wants to come to Huddersfield? That's the question Mr Davy should be asking. His answer will not be 'the top players' - if he thinks that he is a fool (and he is not, as he's built the club from the ground up, quite literally). He must realise the importance of buying wins, not buying players. This means you work out the stats behind a try being scored, things like Meters per Carry, not just Meters and Meters in Attacking Positions, work out how many are scored from kicks, by props, by second rowers. I believe there is a team of Double-winning standard players that no-one will take a chance on, or are rotting in the reserves. So my advice to Mr Davy is to not appoint a star player or a star coach, but get the man who has worked with Saracens through a statistics based approach. Dr Bill Gerrard of the University of Leeds. He advocates a five step plan; 1. Define a coaching vision of a Perfect-Game: covered in Defence, Attack and Set Plays - how your team will cover across the season and where your team needs to improve to get to your goal (Play-offs, Title, 6th place etc) based on previous seasons in accordance with the game plan, work out where the fault is. 2. Work out what is needed in numbers: compare these numbers to the league wide stats and see how factors including age and international experience affect these numbers and aim to predict a statistical number. 3. Consider the shortlist through the numbers: Do not use names, just use their stats as oppose to pictures, video analysis 4. Collate and play the team: once the team is together play the team and take recordings of every game from a number of angles 5. Continually re-evaluate the through the analysis: consider our left sided problem, see (again through stats) how many of the players could play on the left who allow the least meters against them, for example. I think its a method that will be transplanted into Rugby, so I feel that we should become pioneers in the field of statistical research as a method of collating a squad. There's more about Gerrards work with Saracens here: http://www.getstats.org.uk/2011/10/04/s ... niversity/ |
|
First post in a while, been busy with exams, but finished up now ^^
I know the mood here is angry/annoyed/disappointed, but I think that with Brown looking to be on his last legs as Fartown's coach, the obvious question seems to be - where do we go from here? Ladies and Gentlemen, I think I know where. Billy Beane of the Oakland Athletic's baseball team, as some of you may be aware, attempted to compete with the bigger and richer franchises by using statistics over traditional scouts, in order to assess which players were as good as the star players, but were undervalued. The may have been undervalued for personal problems, for their unorthodox methods, or just for their age/background. The method was called Moneyball and it led them to game-wide recognition and a record 20 game streak in the MLB. How does this relate to Huddersfield Giants? It does massively, because I feel we can plant this system into Super League and gain an equal foothold with Wigan and St Helens and Leeds, who's reputations herald their crop of players to be of a 'higher quality' and they are an established club with an established fan-base. They have the advantage, because in a world where in theory all teams will spend the same, who wants to come to Huddersfield? That's the question Mr Davy should be asking. His answer will not be 'the top players' - if he thinks that he is a fool (and he is not, as he's built the club from the ground up, quite literally). He must realise the importance of buying wins, not buying players. This means you work out the stats behind a try being scored, things like Meters per Carry, not just Meters and Meters in Attacking Positions, work out how many are scored from kicks, by props, by second rowers. I believe there is a team of Double-winning standard players that no-one will take a chance on, or are rotting in the reserves. So my advice to Mr Davy is to not appoint a star player or a star coach, but get the man who has worked with Saracens through a statistics based approach. Dr Bill Gerrard of the University of Leeds. He advocates a five step plan; 1. Define a coaching vision of a Perfect-Game: covered in Defence, Attack and Set Plays - how your team will cover across the season and where your team needs to improve to get to your goal (Play-offs, Title, 6th place etc) based on previous seasons in accordance with the game plan, work out where the fault is. 2. Work out what is needed in numbers: compare these numbers to the league wide stats and see how factors including age and international experience affect these numbers and aim to predict a statistical number. 3. Consider the shortlist through the numbers: Do not use names, just use their stats as oppose to pictures, video analysis 4. Collate and play the team: once the team is together play the team and take recordings of every game from a number of angles 5. Continually re-evaluate the through the analysis: consider our left sided problem, see (again through stats) how many of the players could play on the left who allow the least meters against them, for example. I think its a method that will be transplanted into Rugby, so I feel that we should become pioneers in the field of statistical research as a method of collating a squad. There's more about Gerrards work with Saracens here: http://www.getstats.org.uk/2011/10/04/s ... niversity/ |
|
|
