Update Monday 20th August:It was inevitable that something ‘less predictable’ would happen at some point. There were three results to stir things up this weekend. I was highly delighted to be wrong in my prediction that the Dons would lose at Whitehaven. I saw the game as a ‘free hit’ for us. Great if we won but not too damaging if we lost. The magical end of season 36 points can now become 38 should we win our four remaining games.
The downside to the weekend results was Workington beating Bradford as they’re now threatening our chances of finishing third.
The bonus was Oldham losing at Newcastle. Oldham’s chances are now looking pretty grim with 32 points being their realistic target. I think Oldham’s chances of finishing above us have now gone.
York beat Hunslet. That was an important result as it pegs Hunslet’s final points tally back.
There are now four games remaining. Following each row across, the games in blue are where I’ve predicted the team in the left column will lose.
Team & Pts........Diff & Rank......Round 23................Round 24..............Round 25............Round 26...........Final Points & Rank York 40.................+746 (1).......Workington (A).......Oldham (H)............Hemel (A)...........Whitehaven (H).......48 (1)
Bradford 38...........+708 (2).......Keighley (H)...........W Wales (A)..........Oldham (A)..........Hemel (H)..............46 (2)
Workington 32 ......+328 (5)......
York (H)...................Newcastle (A).........London (H)..........
Dons (A)..............36 (4)
Dons 30.................+364 (4)......Newcastle (H).........Keighley (A)............N Wales (A).......Workington (H)......38 (3)
Oldham 28.............+489 (3)......Coventry (H)............
York (A).................
Bradford (H)........London (A)............32 (6)
Hunslet 28..............+185 (6).....London (H).............
Whitehaven (A).......Newcastle (H)......Coventry (A)..........34 (5)
Whitehaven 26......+120 (7).......Hemel (A)..............Hunslet (H)...............Coventry (A)........
York ((A)..............32 (7)
Some fans on the Whitehaven bus weren’t sure what the play-off format is. The top team is promoted automatically. Teams 2 to 5 are in the play-offs. Team Two is at home to Team Five, Team Three is at home to Team Four. Finishing second or third ensures a home game in the play-off semi-finals. As it stands at the moment, York would go up automatically. Bradford would be at home to Oldham, Workington would be at home to the Dons.
What’s likely to happen given the remaining fixtures? If we win all four remaining games, we’ll have 38 points. The permutations amongst the rest are still quite complicated because should a team win when they’re not ‘expected to win’, it can make a big difference to the final standings.
From the bottom up, Whitehaven seem to be up against it. They can now only get 34 points but to do so would mean winning away at York. That seems unlikely.
Oldham will get 32 points plus anything they can get from York (A) and Bradford (H). They’re likely to finish on 32; 34 points would be a surprise; and 36 points a major surprise. It looks like Oldham’s chance of finishing ahead of the Dons was blown at Newcastle yesterday.
I have Hunslet down for 34 points but they could get to 36 if they win at Whitehaven. Even if they get 36 points, their significantly inferior points difference means we should finish above them. We get 36 points even if we lose at home Workington. A win for Whitehaven in the Hunslet match is best for the Dons.
With these points in mind, I cannot see Oldham, Hunslet, or Whitehaven finishing above the Dons. They should occupy the 5th, 6th, and 7th spots. One of the three will get in the play-offs but will face the tough task of an away trip to either Bradford or York.
That leaves the Dons and Workington to fight it out for third and fourth place. In effect, whoever finishes above the other would have home advantage in the play-off semi-final. It’s very much likely that it will come down to the last match of the season at the Keepmoat.
Prior to the last match, if we win our next three games, we’ll have 36 points. If Workington lose against York but win their other two games, they’ll have 36 points. The Keepmoat battle will be the decider. Should Workington beat York, they’ll have 38 points, we’ll have 36 points. If we beat them, points difference could be the decider. At the moment our points difference is +364, Workington’s points difference is 328. We’re ahead of them by a handy 36 points.
Workington’s next to last match is away at London. That seems their best chance to chalk up a few points. It’s not just vital that we win our remaining games; it’s extremely important that we improve our points difference too. It would be helpful if we only had to win the last game, rather than have to win by a 'certain margin' to overtake Workington. The immediate best remedy for this stress would be for York to beat Workington on our behalf in the next round of games. Either way, unless Workington slip up against Newcastle, we’re still going to have to beat them at the Keepmoat to finish third.
Of course, we need to avoid defeat at home to Newcastle too, then win at Keighley and N Wales.
My biggest fear from the Whitehaven trip was that a defeat could knock our confidence and the forthcoming games would then be tougher. The morale boosting win should set us in good stead for the Newcastle game in a fortnight but it’s not a win we should take for granted. Oldham came unstuck against them yesterday.
It’s likely that ‘something unexpected’ will happen over the remaining games but if we win our last four matches we’re guaranteed a play-off place. Our fate is in our own hands. It’d be much better to have a play-off semi-final at the Keepmoat though, rather than another daunting trip to Cumbria.
If things work out to my plan above, York would be promoted automatically. The semi's would be Bradford v Hunslet and Dons v Workington.
If York lose to Workington, top spot is likely to be decided on points difference. York are currently 38 points ahead of Bradford but Bradford have to play West Wales yet!
There are no games next weekend as it's the Challenge Cup final.
With a favourable wind in a fortnight, the Dons could be third and Workington fourth. Hopefully, that's how it'll stay through to the end of the season!
