Should we be worried about someone catching us for 5th place? If Keighley beat us, they'd be level on points. Their last two games are away to Barrow and at home to York.
Could Hunslet catch us? They're two points behind us. They're away at York, home to Toulouse, and away to Rochdale. Looking at those fixtures, it seems very unlikely we'll finish out of the top five even if we lose to Keighley on Sunday although we would probably have to beat Skolars in the last match to do it, if we drew a blank at York and Rochdale.
Can we over-take York for 4th? York have Hunslet, Skolars, and Dons at home, plus Keighley away. I'd guess York will win at least two out of the other three games, which would give them 29 points if they beat us. This means our best, if we beat Keighley, Rochdale and Skolars, would be 28. If we don't win at York, we can probably forget about finishing above them.
What happens if we finish 5th? Assuming Toulouse win at home against either Rochdale or Barrow in the first play-off match, we'd face an away trip to either Rochdale or Barrow. If we finish 4th, we'd either be away to Rochdale or Barrow (most likely) or away to York (least likely). It might even be a trip to Toulouse if they got turned over at home in the first play-off game (very unlikely).
To finish third and get a home tie, we'd need to win all our remaining games and hope Rochdale lose all theirs, whilst Barrow would need two wins out of their last four to definitely finish above us. They have Skolars away and Keighley at home, plus Toulouse away. Rochdale have Toulouse away, Dons at home, and Hunslet at home.
Rochdale could be vulnerable but they'd have to lose to us and then lose at home to Hunslet and we'd need to win all our last four games. It looks like 4th or 5th and away tie in the play offs probably against Barrow or Rochdale.
We've generally done well against sides beneath in the league. I don't expect Keighley to trouble us this weekend although it will be like a cup to final to them. If they lose their season is all but over.
