Re: First 6 Games : Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:17 am  

Johnkendal wrote:

Why ?

Injured.

Re: First 6 Games : Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:44 am  

Tripped over in the pitch black up Pen-y-Ghent carrying a 200lb Army backpack.

Re: First 6 Games : Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:47 am  

My reasons for expecting nothing but 6/6 wins aren't that of bigotry and arrogance but of pure odds.
I take the same approach to gambling...I don't gamble on luck but chance.

Warrington and Wigan are to my knowledge the only two clubs with marquee signings. Saints just having one.

With full cap and a fully fit squad...chance would side on Warrington and Wigan both being neck and neck, and as a handicaper, I'd be giving them the same top weight....however home advantage does have an effect so then I would give the side with home advantage the win...

But then...
Pies have a slight advantage over Warrington in that they have and extra £100K or so to spend in their cap because Tompkins and Williams get a discount for home grown talent.
On a scale it does tip in Pies favour and says each time Wire play Pies, it ought to be a Pie win, but home advantage may just the difference for a Wire win or a draw. At the Pie Dome it favors a Pie win so that's why I predict 6/6 and not 5/6.

Every team below forms a sliding scale of probability defeat...Saints being the next tougher and then Leeds and Hull with big game experience and large home support, but with many other teams at full cap the main tipping point is the home advantage.

....and then you need to factor in form from injury situations!

Re: First 6 Games : Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:56 am  

rubber duckie wrote:

My reasons for expecting nothing but 6/6 wins aren't that of bigotry and arrogance but of pure odds.

The odds for Warrington winning 6 in a row will surely be < 50%.

Probably why Fred and Peter Done are billionaires.

Re: First 6 Games : Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:57 pm  

Odds are in RL are initially guided by historic form hence Cas followed by Leeds and Pies.
If one is prepared to look deeper than just that, money can be made in rl. ...betting shops are making more money from longer hours and shop and online gaming.
Their attention to RL is there for us to exploit as it's way down on the target market.

Re: First 6 Games : Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:31 pm  

We are the team in Super League with the longest winning run of 10 games. We have not been beaten since the 1st of July

Re: First 6 Games : Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:55 pm  

True, although the last 7 games were in the Qualifiers.

Re: First 6 Games : Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:56 pm  

rubber duckie wrote:

Odds are in RL are initially guided by historic form hence Cas followed by Leeds and Pies.
If one is prepared to look deeper than just that, money can be made in rl. ...betting shops are making more money from longer hours and shop and online gaming.
Their attention to RL is there for us to exploit as it's way down on the target market.

OK sounds interesting. For 2018 why not record your tips and betting results on here so we can follow your progress and look at the return.

Re: First 6 Games : Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:22 pm  

Wires71 wrote:

OK sounds interesting. For 2018 why not record your tips and betting results on here so we can follow your progress and look at the return.

Not sure if you're attempting a soft patronise of me or you didn't fully understand my post. I'll take it as the later though, I don't think you're that type of poster.

My post is referring to the current prices of start up for the SL title and the probability of league finishing position over the season.

Individual games have factors that can come into play.

Re: First 6 Games : Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:40 pm  

rubber duckie wrote:

Not sure if you're attempting a soft patronise of me or you didn't fully understand my post. I'll take it as the later though, I don't think you're that type of poster.

My post is referring to the current prices of start up for the SL title and the probability of league finishing position over the season.

Individual games have factors that can come into play.

No I'm being serious. If you have a Super League betting approach that generates return I am sure we are all interested - certainly I am.