Tigerade wrote:
I haven't done the maths but would 4 wins out of 7 get you in one to third spot in the middle 8's ?
Say Leigh beat (for example) Fev, Bulls and Halifax plus one SL club - would that be enough ?
It's possible but difficult and unlikely (as it requires lots of other results to help you out) that 4 wins from 7 would be enough for 3rd place. Using the teams you name Leigh would need two of the SL clubs (for example) Wakefield and Salford to both lose to the other two SL clubs (Hull and Hull KR). Salford then beat Wakefield. Leigh beat Wakefield and the other KPC clubs to get 8 points, the most Wakefield (still to play Fev, Bradford and Halifax) can now get is 6. Salford having beaten Wakefield beat Leigh and have four points with three KPC clubs to play. So for Leigh (8 points) to have a chance of getting 3rd Salford must also lose to Bradford (for example) and finish with at most 8 points if they beat Fev and Halifax and 3rd spot comes down to points difference. If Salford had dropped a further point by drawing with Wakefield (or Fev or Fax) then they finish 4th with 7 points and Leigh get 3rd. In that scenario Leigh would still need to manage to win against the right one of the 4 SL teams and get 2 SL teams and a KPC team to beat the other weak SL team to help them.
The odds do swing a little in Leigh's favour if in an otherwise identical scenario two of their 4 wins are against Wakefield and Salford as both of those will have then lost 3 games just as Leigh would. At that stage a dropped point for either of the two SL clubs in their remaining 4 games (v the other 3 KPC clubs and each other) means that they could not claim 3rd place as they could not reach 8 points. A draw between Salford and Wakefield or the victor of that game failing to beat one of Bradford, Fev or Fax would see Leigh take 3rd spot.
Either scenario rely on a lot of ifs and buts and helpful results elsewhere. Winning 4 of 7 should make you sure of a spot in the 4th v 5th playoff which still allows a chance of promotion but in reality the team that gets 3rd will probably have won 5 out of 7 games (or won 4 and drawn 1).