SmokeyTA wrote:
I Wonder how Denmark and Sweden would react to that attitude?
What you are saying doesnt make sense, it assumes the EU will deliberately put themselves in a worse negotiating position for no benefit.
Whilst-ever the UK doesnt trigger article 50, the EU continues to have the deal with Britain that it wishes to have. If it continues to have this deal for ever more, this is a win for the EU
Britain isn't going to get a lot of traction with a threat of 'until you negotiate before we trigger article 50, we arent going to do that thing you dont want us to do'
The thing is, the EU would comfortably win a trade war. Whilst we do buy more from them than they from us, they are many, we are simply 1. We export 45% of our exports to the EU, yet we only constitute more 10% of exports for Ireland and Cyprus. Many countries in the EU, wouldnt lose all that much. Their risk is spread, ours is concentrated.
It is not an attitude against Denmark and Sweden, I like them both very much, but it is silly for some to make out that the EU cannot strike a special deal which would acknowledge our special status which would never need to be offered to another country considering leaving. In addition to being their major export market we also are a major intelligence provider and a major provider of military defense without which they may need to bring forward the proposal to form an EU army. So it makes sense to negotiate in a friendly and positive manner.
The ball is in our court as to the timing of article 50 so there is nothing they can do until we are ready. Having said that I think the Conservatives should speed up their leadership contest and discourage those that have no chance. If it could quickly be reduced to two candidates then we could have a new PM well before the deadline.
But a few weeks delay before we press the trigger is the most sensible plan and it isn't any kind of threat as the rules allow for this and was always on the cards and as the PM found last night the majority of EU leaders fully understand this. Also the PM made clear at the EU council last night that the main reason for the referendum result was the public's wish to control our borders and immigration which of course was turned down in the so called pre referendum negotiations by Frau Merkel. How she must wish she had been a little more accomodating
In my view neither side will accept a trade war and business will have a major say. It will not be the percentages of our mutual trade that will decide this as it will come down to the potential loss of jobs particularly in Germany. The facts are that the EU share of our exports has been declining for many years as had the total EU share of world trade. In 2000 54% of our exports went to the EU but last year this had declined to 44% . We have a big and rising EU trading deficit which rose to 24billion for the first three months of this year so this is now heading for 100bn p.a.
Our total exports to the EU are I understand around 11% of total GDP and even if we are not able to access the single market without tariffs any loss in trade with the EU as a result could be made up in gains with the rest of the world. Granted this could take a period time but we would have up to two years to set this up. Then when we come out we would have the net £10bn in saved EU payments which represents about half of our total current export value to the EU which puts into perspective our position.
