Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Wed Mar 21, 2018 5:30 pm  

Backwoodsman wrote:

The ongoing negotiations are proceeding as I expected. The former Greek finance minister the motor bike riding yanis varoufakus said whilst negotiating with the EU said it was impossible to talk with them. Mainly because you would agree an arrangement ,then somebody else from the EU would move things in another direction. As I have commented before our bargaining position was weakened by jezza and thornberry going to Brussels and informing Barnier that they will support staying in the customs union . That was then followed up by members of Leeds city council also going to Brussels ,presumably on Eurostar first class. They informed Barnier they too would like to stay in the customs union. Coupled with the fact several extremely wealthy men, kinnock, Blair, mandelson are openly campaigning against brexit. You can see the problems that Teresa may has to surmount. Meanwhile back in snowflake guardian reader land ,anybody Surporting the EU exit is branded a little englander.

It was never going to be an easy negotiation, how could it be ?
The fundamental issue of one of the "main" countries within the EU wanting out, was always going to be difficult and with the referendum result being particularly close and the "split" not being along party political lines, nothing that has happens should be a surprise to anyone, apart from the actual leave vote which surprised plenty.
Again, I just dont see how or why The UK will be allowed to leave and end up with a "better" deal than the countries who remain in the EU. It would be a fatal blow the the whole EU concept.
So, we continue with the dance, hoping for a good deal and trying to remain positive, whilst knowing that our relationship with the EU27 wont ever be quite as good as is once was.
We have promises of new trade deals with The US and other nations but, apart from possibly reducing the cost on certain items, we are still likely to be slightly worse off than we were before.
Remember, IF the UK was such a great nation with so much to offer in these "new markets", why weren't we involved previously and IF we do find ourselves in a position to supply some products and services into new sectors, what do we think the incumbent suppliers will do ?
Will they roll over and let us "take" their business or, will they fight just a little bit harder to protect their "own" markets ?
It's not rocket science, just simple business.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:09 am  

Were the UK in a position to negotiate a separate trade deal whilst still in the EU or were they duty bound to allow the EU commission to negotiate on their behalf. We can see how successful they have been in delivering on these deals - have they yet agreed a deal with the US?

It is in everyone's interest to have a good deal - the EU countries still want to deal here. Yes they don't want other countries to leave but whatever deal they strike cannot be so punitive that it is unworkable. Taking away the revenues derived by some EU countries from sales to the UK would hurt especially the bigger players: Germany, France etc. especially the global brands.

The new markets is about growth as the living standards of say China and India improve - if this happens this will open up opportunities that don't currently exist. Is the population of India c3 times the size of the EU let alone China - as you say just simple business economics.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Thu Mar 22, 2018 9:05 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Were the UK in a position to negotiate a separate trade deal whilst still in the EU or were they duty bound to allow the EU commission to negotiate on their behalf. We can see how successful they have been in delivering on these deals - have they yet agreed a deal with the US?

It is in everyone's interest to have a good deal - the EU countries still want to deal here. Yes they don't want other countries to leave but whatever deal they strike cannot be so punitive that it is unworkable. Taking away the revenues derived by some EU countries from sales to the UK would hurt especially the bigger players: Germany, France etc. especially the global brands.

The new markets is about growth as the living standards of say China and India improve - if this happens this will open up opportunities that don't currently exist. Is the population of India c3 times the size of the EU let alone China - as you say just simple business economics.

I fully understand the relative population and market size of India/china and no doubt there may be some opportunities from those two huge population masses.
However, the benefit of being within a larger "bargaining group" is the element of protection that can be given to certain industries (through the EU Tariff system etc) and also giving a stronger negotiating position when trying to secure their trade deals etc.

You are right about standards of living improving in both China and India, although, there will still be millions of people there in abject poverty and you quite rightly point to possible increased trade opportunities.
However, there is also the risk of them (India/China) further undermining the UK manufacturing sector as they too will want a deal thet benefits themselves, it's never a one way street.
Finally, if/when we have negotiated a host of new trade deals, where do you suppose we will want to sell our wares ? The EU would be an obvious place to start, as it's on the doorstep but, there is absolutely no doubt that IF the UK was to benefit from substantially better trade deals with certain nations and try to "undercut" our "friends" in the EU27, they would take action to protect themselves and the UK would no doubt find themselves in the same position as China / India (albeit to a lesser extent) and some of our goods would begin to attract higher levies.

Finally, on the hot topic of Russia, I find it both alarming and funny that, at the first sign of "trouble" from Russia.
Liam Fox, a staunch Brexitier, instantly wants help from the EU nations, slightly 2 faced ??

Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Thu Mar 22, 2018 1:11 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

I fully understand the relative population and market size of India/china and no doubt there may be some opportunities from those two huge population masses.
However, the benefit of being within a larger "bargaining group" is the element of protection that can be given to certain industries (through the EU Tariff system etc) and also giving a stronger negotiating position when trying to secure their trade deals etc.

You are right about standards of living improving in both China and India, although, there will still be millions of people there in abject poverty and you quite rightly point to possible increased trade opportunities.
However, there is also the risk of them (India/China) further undermining the UK manufacturing sector as they too will want a deal thet benefits themselves, it's never a one way street.
Finally, if/when we have negotiated a host of new trade deals, where do you suppose we will want to sell our wares ? The EU would be an obvious place to start, as it's on the doorstep but, there is absolutely no doubt that IF the UK was to benefit from substantially better trade deals with certain nations and try to "undercut" our "friends" in the EU27, they would take action to protect themselves and the UK would no doubt find themselves in the same position as China / India (albeit to a lesser extent) and some of our goods would begin to attract higher levies.

Finally, on the hot topic of Russia, I find it both alarming and funny that, at the first sign of "trouble" from Russia.
Liam Fox, a staunch Brexitier, instantly wants help from the EU nations, slightly 2 faced ??

Have the EU a good track record of negotiating trade deals? how are the negotiations going with the Americans? Has size actually made any impact on deals the EU is able to extract?

Given our manufacturing is more specialist/niche I think the idea that China/India will undercut the like of JCB/Rolls Royce/London Taxi Co. etc is mute. It is very likely that they will sell more to us than we sell to them so it would be odd if they started to mess around with tariffs as this would be counter-productive because as you quite rightly point out its never a one way street.

On your last point given the trade deficit between the UK and the EU is approximately £60bn surely they would be cutting their nose off to spite their face by trying to protect their own market.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Thu Mar 22, 2018 1:38 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

On your last point given the trade deficit between the UK and the EU is approximately £60bn surely they would be cutting their nose off to spite their face by trying to protect their own market.

The trade deficit is the UK vs 27 other nations, therefore not quite as black and white as the "leavers" try to claim and IF the alternative to a deal which puts the UK in a win/win is to cut their noses off, then expect a pile of 27 noses.
They can not afford the EU to crumble so, first and foremost, they will protect what remains of the EU and if a deal can still be done but, dont expect any advantage to the UK, it would be political suicide and although Mrs May nearly followed Cameron down this route, dont expect the same from The EU.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:22 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

It was never going to be an easy negotiation, how could it be ?
The fundamental issue of one of the "main" countries within the EU wanting out, was always going to be difficult and with the referendum result being particularly close and the "split" not being along party political lines, nothing that has happens should be a surprise to anyone, apart from the actual leave vote which surprised plenty.
Again, I just dont see how or why The UK will be allowed to leave and end up with a "better" deal than the countries who remain in the EU. It would be a fatal blow the the whole EU concept.
So, we continue with the dance, hoping for a good deal and trying to remain positive, whilst knowing that our relationship with the EU27 wont ever be quite as good as is once was.
We have promises of new trade deals with The US and other nations but, apart from possibly reducing the cost on certain items, we are still likely to be slightly worse off than we were before.
Remember, IF the UK was such a great nation with so much to offer in these "new markets", why weren't we involved previously and IF we do find ourselves in a position to supply some products and services into new sectors, what do we think the incumbent suppliers will do ?
Will they roll over and let us "take" their business or, will they fight just a little bit harder to protect their "own" markets ?
It's not rocket science, just simple business.

I don't think any reasonable person expected a 'better' deal than the EU27. The goal in reality has always been to secure a deal as close to that as possible. As we've seen, negotiations have been tough but I'm with Backwoodsman, things are going pretty much as expected.

And we haven't been into other markets for the simple reason we've been restricted by the EU customs union (barrier). How are we supposed to enter markets when we're not allowed to?

Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:34 pm  

Cronus wrote:

I don't think any reasonable person expected a 'better' deal than the EU27. The goal in reality has always been to secure a deal as close to that as possible. As we've seen, negotiations have been tough but I'm with Backwoodsman, things are going pretty much as expected.

And we haven't been into other markets for the simple reason we've been restricted by the EU customs union (barrier). How are we supposed to enter markets when we're not allowed to?

I think that the Americans would call it "starting behind the 8 ball" but, on the basis that there will be incumbent suppliers in these "new" countries. It will be bloody difficult to suddenly open up these new opportunities.
Of course, if you product/service is of good quality and service is as good/better than the next guy, you may secure some business and the company that works hardest is usually more successful that the others.
However, what I'm trying to say, is that, despite the bullish optimism of people like Farage & Co, there simply isnt an "untapped" pool of customers just waiting to buy British.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Thu Mar 22, 2018 4:09 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

The trade deficit is the UK vs 27 other nations, therefore not quite as black and white as the "leavers" try to claim and IF the alternative to a deal which puts the UK in a win/win is to cut their noses off, then expect a pile of 27 noses.
They can not afford the EU to crumble so, first and foremost, they will protect what remains of the EU and if a deal can still be done but, dont expect any advantage to the UK, it would be political suicide and although Mrs May nearly followed Cameron down this route, dont expect the same from The EU.

The trade deficit is an issue for the EU being 27 nations makes it harder as they risk upsetting a few countries to protect the very powerful ones. The deal needs to be as is not better not worse and that is a win/win. If you make it worse for the UK your are making it a lot worse for the 27. Because we aren't going to have a one-sided deal that suits the 27 and disadvantages us.

The elephant in the room is the money - the EU really need it and therein lies their achilles heel.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Thu Mar 22, 2018 4:11 pm  

Cronus wrote:

And we haven't been into other markets for the simple reason we've been restricted by the EU customs union (barrier). How are we supposed to enter markets when we're not allowed to?

It doesn't seem to stop Germany - their exports to China for example, are 3 times larger than ours; how are they managing that, if EU members aren't "allowed" to?

The EU currently has trade talks open which, when concluded, would give us access to 2/3 of the world market by value; and right now, the EU and its various trade deals accounts for 60% of UK trade - when the deals that are currently under negotiation are signed, that will increase to 88%. And all of those trade deals include good *and* services. (taken from the CBI)

This either/or scenario is absolute insanity; it's absolutely right that the EC should be working harder to make trade agreements with the rest of the world, but to imagine that we'll get special treatment from any of these countries as a lone wolf after leaving the EU is pure fantasy. India has already sent a pretty clear message - to get anything like the generous terms the hapless Liam Fox wanted from them, they would expect a significantly more liberal approach to visas for students and workers - otherwise known in some quarters, as free movement of people.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (2) : Thu Mar 22, 2018 5:10 pm  

China is the EU's second biggest trading partner after the US. There are currently 26 bi-lateral trading agreements between the EU countries & China. An EU-China agreement will replace all these. But we will still get a better deal?